U.S. employers added 164,000 jobs to the payroll in July and the unemployment rate remained the same at 3.7 percent, the Labor Department announced Friday.
In the fall of 2016 Trump was saying the real unemployment rate was about 40% now under his watch we should believe itās 3.7%.
The economy is slowing and Current Occupant will only make it worse with his trade wars and tariffs and false promises concerning coal, manufacturing et. al. Heās shooting himself in the footā¦ not unlike the wonderful Boris Johnson who continues to push his hapless country towards the Brexit precipice.
Incoming tweet that will (unironically) claim the economy is both soaring and blame the slowdown on Obama.
If Iām not mistaken, we are in a stealth bear market now.
Trade war escalation with China will accelerate things downward.
If the fed lowers rates again, look out below.
S&P forward PE was at 18.04 Friday before last and it slipped tp 18.15 last Friday. If we keep going at this rate, a correction will be certain.
Trump hasnāt moved the needle and the economy is basically like a car with the pedal to the metal but itās not growing.
The 2020 economy will almost certainly be slower and worse than 2019 and definitely 2018. That means the competition in the Dem party will get fiercer because the chances of any nominee winning in 2020 are higher no matter who that candidate is.
Our financial advisor has been saying that a correction is overdue.
Gotta disagree with you, my friend.
Trump wins on this issue. Hands down. The optics are all in his favor here.
I donāt know how the continued increase in new jobs is possible. I donāt know how unemployment is as low as it is.
Weāve been saying since the inauguration that the economy will kill him. Iāve personally been waiting for two years on this issue and every month the economy metrics get better and better.
As a consultant, I watch the job boards in my business as to availability. In the last week, Iāve seen four or five new gigs come across that Iām qualified for (Iām already employed through March of next year). My skillset is very niche and jobs are difficult to come by. IT budgets are a great leading indicator because if thereās no money and itās a choice between keeping workers or hiring consultants for expensive new projects, theyāre going to keep their workers - Iāve had several spates of unemployment in 23 years that are directly tied to economic downturns.
I was part of the Carrier implementation that led to the closure of the Indianapolis plant and relocation to Monterrey. I wasnāt at all surprised with that; saw it coming a mile and a half away.
If the economy continues at this pace, the Dems cannot, repeat CANNOT, run on the issue of the weak economy, This is an absolute winner for him. Iām still waiting, as you are, for the economic collapse, but itās just not evident.
This is where the Democrats reveal themselves to be the worst political party I have ever had the misfortune to support. Every Dem should be out saying that these numbers are a disaster; that Trump and the rest of the GOP has bankrupted the country; that the TaxScam has been a total disaster that Democrats will be expected to clean up.
But no. Democrats seem to think that theyāre helpless because the media is against them; that some Act of God is responsible for the enormous messaging superiority of the GOP; and (subconsciously) that Republicans are the natural party of power and that the job of Democrats is clean up the mess afterwards and let the GOP run the country asap.
The bigger data tell us the story: Growth dropping despite massive juice in the economy. Tariffs roiling certain sectors of the economy. Data clearly show that itās nowhere near as good as Obamaās second term. Votersā view of the economy is often relative, and unemployment is often the lagging indicator. Much of what we see actually aligns to what virtually all of the candidates have said: economy works for the top but working class folks are one event away from financial ruin. Weāre actually seeing it in the data now. Growth isnāt high b/c the money is going to the top, we have a stupid trade policy, and we need more immigrants but Trump is scaring everyone away and jailing the rest.
Iām not predicting disaster, but Iām finally convinced that the data tell us weāre in a slower economy which means youāll see more tangible signs. First sign I saw was in retail last winter and it turns out the revised growth rate for that quarter dropped below 2%. Seeing those signs again this summer.
On the business side, I see companies at the end of last year and the first quarter of this year are prioritizing what they spend on. Theyāre getting tighter with money and are a bit hesitant. Thatās not ārecessionā mode. But thatās a āslowdownā mentality.
Until people are thrown out on the street (and thatās not the āotherā ones, itās the minions themselves) and canāt get their beer and their baseball, I honestly donāt think they care. Who was it that said the economy has to be a kitchen table issue?
I understand what youāre saying, but I just donāt think the average American is paying attention to this. As long as Trump can distract with āsend them backā and ālock her upā and thatās what the media pay attention to, heās in the catbird seat.
And then when the merde really hits the fan for the next Dem president, the media will blame the Dem and not the previous admin. The āthanks, Obamaā mantra revisited.
ETA: And now, this:
Thread. Trumponomics isnāt going to give the economy a long term boost.
You write this as if this is the first time youāve noticed.
All heās looking for is the short āsugar rushā of an interest rate cut, just long enough to get him and us into the campaign
Because the GOP has stopped sabotaging the economy with austerity measures and has gone full bore with the type of Keynesian stimulus measures that Krugman has been calling for since the Great Recession started.
It took us 10 years of unnecessary suffering to get there, but Iām glad that Krugman has been fully proven right.
We just need to make sure to endlessly hammer this point when the GOP starts deficit/debt peacocking again under the next Dem President.
New jobs are being created because employers are getting rid of FT jobs, and replacing them with 2X as many PT jobs. PT jobs require no benefits, pay lower wages, and are not subject to arbitration.
Unemployment is low because nearly everyone needs at least one job to keep their heads above water. Wages are stagnant, but expenses keep growing. Many people are working one FT job + a PT job, or multiple PT jobs in order to pay the bills.
I donāt claim the is universally true everywhere, but i have seen an awful lot of this going on.
Thereās another factor here that i think Yang is doing a good job in highlighting: the disconnect between available jobs and available workers. The skillsets simply donāt match the work that needs to be done.
A good friend of mine was laid off ten years ago - she worked for a steelmill and was a forklift driver. Her unemployment benefits re-trained her in computers. She retired a few months ago, having had a decent job that wasnāt anywhere near what sheād done from fresh out of high school.
There arenāt a whole lot of programs like that (yes, she was union).
Itās not that people are lazy and wonāt find jobs - the work theyāre capable of doing isnāt available and employers want hands-on experience before theyāll look at a candidate.
No one is highlighting this. But itās out there - Yang is starting the discussion.
Does rising employment in the gig economy, Uber, food delivery services and others count as employment. Because itās a growth field. Doesnāt mean itās secure employment. Do day laborers who wait on street corners for building and landscape contractors to pick them for a few days of work count for employment. trumPP has no bragging rights about growth in employment as long as unemployment figures stay as high as they are. No matter. Whatever he might say he wonāt fully understand so itāll be more gibberish.
āImplementationā is a little vague. Can you elaborate.