With just 14 days to go until the election, Democrats have a good shot at retaking the Senate.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1339438
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1339438
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Come January, I hope to never, ever, have to hear another goddamn peep about “concerns” from Susan Collins. So much veneered bullshit.
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Can we, please gawd, not have any more protests or burnings or violence that can possibly be pinned on Antifa or the left? Remove all doubt, stay off the streets, don’t let yourself get provoked, and the only mobilizing we should be doing is voting. No need to provide an Oct. Surprise Own Goal. Joe and Kamala got this.
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I would have included the Kentucky race in the Blue Tsunami section. 538 has this seat as pretty solid for McConnell, but its been lightly polled with the last coming in Mid-September.
If the bottom is dropping out for Trump and the GOP, this is exactly the type of sleeper that could flip to D without people expecting it. Mississippi or Tennessee could also potentially fall into this zone.
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I would like to think that running a charity that spends all its money on entertainment, legal and consulting expenses, and a brand new pickup truck, instead of giving it to veterans’ causes like it’s supposed to be doing, would be seen as bad even in Alabama. We’ll see.
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I’m not sure how many dealings Bullock has had with the Maine Legislature. Someone might want to fix that.
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Mississippi is a sleeper. Mike Espy is an excellent candidate, and Hyde-Smith is not. She only beat him by 7 points or so in a low-turnout special election. With presidential election turnout this time, I think he’s got a halfway decent shot.
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Isn’t Texas one of those that makes early voting a bit difficult?
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Naa, McConnell’s seat isn’t at risk.
Personally, I would move Ossoff’s race up a category, and the GA special down a category. The special is going to go to a run off, and our chances will drop considerably once that happens. Warnock will not emerge with 51%.
I would probably elevate Harrison’s chances a category higher as well. Though that might be optimistic on my part. But he has a serious money advantage and ground game advantage, and in what is essentially a tied race, that matters. Its the institutional issues of being in SC and being an African American in South Carolina that make people skeptical.
I want to believe that Hagar is closing in, but I have serious doubts. Less doubts than I do most of the others in the Tsunami category, but still enough to not move it up.
Likewise, I think there is just too little data (and what data we have doesn’t look great) for the Montana seat.
I don’t see us flipping any of the other “Tsunami” seats. They are largely aspirational hopes IMO. And if we are going to do that, than I would add Doug Jones holding his seat (he released some numbers over the weekend that are promising, but that’s also the sort of thing a losing campaign does to stay in it), and the Mississippi race (which isn’t realistically in play, despite some pleas Espy was putting out earlier).
OTOH, I am skeptical that Peters is at serious risk.
Bottom line, taking back the Senate is going to be close. We have CO, AZ, ME and I believe NC. We need one more to offset the expected loss in AL, and we have several races that are close enough to have a better than even chance…but its going to be close.
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The only cough she is worried about is if donnie will be able to cough up any of the pre-nup once he is booted from the WH.
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Obama has just cut a bunch of ads for Senate races, I am happy to note!
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We also have something like 1.95 million more voters registered in 2020 than we did in 2016, expanding the electorate by about 12%. 1.2 million of those additional registrations came after the 2018 midterm election that Beto came so close to winning. Texas is winnable this year.
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I donated to Mike. 
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Just think, if Boof Havabeer and Amy Covid Barrett had been nominated in the other order, Susan Collins would likely still have a job come January 4th.
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Not really. Mail ballots are not no-excuse, but they’re not hard to request either. In-person early voting is 7 days a week, starting a week ago and continuing through the Friday before Election Day. Lines were long for the first couple days, but there were only a half dozen people in front of me when I voted over the weekend. Plenty of early polling locations in Blue counties too, no doubt because they are Blue county election officials in charge.
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Along with the spelling of Debbie “Stabnow”.
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