Only an extraordinary cocktail of strategic delay, judicial scale-thumbing and good old fashioned bungling could leave just one of four Donald Trump felony indictment cases likely to conclude (and quite possibly even to start) before Election Day.
Polling has remained unfriendly for Biden.
So now the polls mean something this early? 538 has him even or slightly ahead in the latest polling. No mention of confidence intervals either.
If that’s true, a conviction could decide the election. And if it does, it’ll happen in New York — Trump’s hometown, the cauldron of his celebrity and his potential downfall.
At this point, I don’t think a conviction and sentence combination will have any impact on the election. Very few voters will change their positions, based on what happens in the trial. TIFBG’s antics have been normalized to a point where it’s just another day at the office for those that are even paying attention.
What may make the difference will be the conventions. They’re closer to the election date and the parties will be on full view of the electorate.
I just don’t see the trials, any of them, whether they complete or not before November, having a significant impact on the vote.
Not sure 538 wasn’t bought out years back. They certainly were poised to be a much bigger deal. A wad of cash stuffed in their bell, methinks.
I don’t think any of the polling companies are accurate enough to be worth whatever money, so they are obviously loss leaders.
They’ve only ever favored the GOP in the 25 years I’ve lived here.
I’m shocked. What could possibly make you question the accuracy of the polls?
National polls are meaningless, the only ones that may vaguely be useful are the state-level ones done in the 6-7 states that matter to the EC. And they tend to be of pretty crap quality
I have no hope in the US electorate, so I see TMFWWNBN being easily re-elected (and by easily, I mean by a net margin of 200k votes or so). Because Biden old, blah blah blah purity unicorn Gaza, the Dems need to be taught a lesson, GQP is better at the economy (WTF) etc. Together with the massive thumb on the scales from the GQP in certain important states taking out the Dem counties.
I think the only people who say a conviction will make a difference are ones who were 100% going to vote Trump anyway but don’t want to admit it. This gives them a fig-leaf of an argument that he isn’t a rapist fraudulent conman as one juror in NY hangs the trial up and he doesn’t get convicted.
Asteroid/Godzilla 2024!
What can possibly be done?!
Well, let’s GOTV. Defeat the motherfucker by wide majorities in both the popular vote and electoral college … and then let the 4-times indicted defendant twist in the wind (if there is wind in the courtrooms or jails he will be spending time in after November).
It’s pretty much guaranteed that the NY business fraud case will conclude in a few weeks with a verdict. If Trump is convicted on the full set of charges, he will be tagged with “convicted felon” even if he’s still on appeal through November. That’s useful for Dem messaging. I’ll take it.
The Accountability Fail will be crawled over with a magnifying glass and comb by historians for however much longer we have historians.
I would expect a conviction to light a thousand sun fire on the GQP to indict Biden or start impeachment proceedings on ANYthing they think could stick. I would expect the complicit media to fall into lockstep with such proceedings and entirely bury the TIFBG conviction.
That or all of the above on Hunter Biden.
Such a disgusting creature is Dump.
That’s the pessimistic view, but I’m going with optimism that the media (other than Fox) and the general electorate is fed up with this guy.
Trump fatigue is a thing. It’s stronger here in TPM forums where we’re tired of his mug on every headline, but I think there is a similar sentiment out there in the general public. It’s why the voters kicked him out in 2020 and I think it will happen again. I could be wrong, I hope I’m not.
Cannon is a complete disgrace. It’s astonishing how transparent she is in protecting Von Shitzinpantz.
I mostly lay the current situation at the feet of Merrick Garland. If he had been awake for the first year and a half after he was appointed, all this nonsense would have played out in late 2022 or early 2023 despite judicial manipulation…
I think you are right. I think the professional political pundits fail to see that at their peril.
" I know about the cheating, and his dumb family getting prime jobs and contracts, and his idiotic response to a worldwide pandemic, and his endangering of national security and his constant badmouthing of everyone and everything, his irrational responses to the most prosaic of issues - but I won’t vote against him until I hear the verdict on this penny-ante trial."
That is a pretty pessimistic outcome. It ignores what happened in 2020 and 2022. It also ignores what is happening in the Republican party. It is collapsing as we watch. The media just isn’t telling us.
I just understand that, when you think their side has hit bottom, they surprise us by lowering the bar.
