TOKYO (AP) — As the coronavirus spreads in Japan, the chief executive of the Tokyo Games said Friday he can’t guarantee the postponed Olympics will be staged next year — even with the long delay.
The sad truth is that we don’t know when this is going to end. Obviously it would end with an effective vaccine, but there’s no guarantee that a vaccine will ever be found.
Until a viable and effective vaccine is widely produced and administered, everything is in doubt.
Wow, the headline is kind of shocking. But that’s probably how we need to be thinking about this. Japan may have been less than candid about their Covid19 problem, but they seem chastened now and are speaking blunt truth.
And yet, ‘he who shall not be named’ wants to open up our economy by May 1st. 
A bit premature, I’d say. Also, move the games to October. July is hideous in Japan.
Until a vaccine is developed, proven, and administered to 100% of the population, there is no chance that any large gathering should occur. So I would expect 2022 at the absolute earliest.
Even if all else goes really really well, international travel and discretionary spending will not be back to “normal” levels by next summer. And most or all of the irrevocable prep work has to started by, say, the first of the year.
Unfortunately, testing in Japan is almost non-existent and the response by the Abe government is timid at best. We have no idea how bad the COVID situation really is or how much worse it’s going to get. Authorities don’t want to find out the ugly truth. Hence the lack of testing.
This quote that i pulled from your post…do you think they didn’t want to know because of the Olympics? Thats what I figured.
Now that the Olympics have been postponed, it seems like they’re taking it more seriously. Do correct me if I’m wrong, though…?
Yes, but: 1) central government wants to address the pandemic but without the urgency that would force everyone out of their denial of the underlying scandal; local authorities (Tokyo prefecture) are more decisive but hampered by dithering at the national level 2) private hospital system is very balkanized (sound familiar?) and a few hospitals prefer not to know who’s positive so they can keep treating this as just another flu and send patients back home (which current nonsensical regulations would not allow if they knew them to be contagious) 3) not enough national ability or will to coordinate a response; not enough public health mindset or infrastructure; traditional dependence on US leadership, which is obviously absent