Originally published at: Three Lessons From Hungary on How to Beat Competitive Authoritarianism - TPM – Talking Points Memo
This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. Sunday, April 12, brought long-awaited political change to Hungary. After 16 years in power, Prime Minister Orbán and his Fidesz party have been roundly defeated at the polls. Tisza, a new party led by Péter Magyar — a former Fidesz government insider who…
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Orban accepted reality and resigned. I like that in doing so he showed up his pals, Putin and Trump.
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The GOP candidates will start begging Trump to endorse their opponents!
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So is Donnie going to come out soon and declare “I don’t like dictators who bow to the will of the people?”
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He’s going to ask an aide if he has any investments in Hungary, then claim that he really didn’t know Orban, and outright deny that he sent Vance there to carry his blessing.
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Another key difference - ONE candidate, campaigning for TWO years. With our system, they jostle and fight for attention to become the ONE candidate, until just a few months before the election.
Someone needs to get out in the heartland now and start building support there, so that in two years they’re ready to bring in some of that vote.
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All of this is valid, but what struck me most forcibly were two things 1) the awareness of the Hungarian opposition that they did not just need to win, but to win big enough to accomplish real change and 2) the mass engagement of young people. As to point 1, I am afraid that the Democratic establishment lacks the imagination to see the predominance of Republican seats up for reelection as a potential opportunity rather than as a misfortune. To do so, they would need to take your first point seriously. As to the second point, I hope we shall see someone emerge from the midterms who can capture the imagination of younger voters. Too bad Mamdani was born in Uganda.
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Orban has some nerve, showing up Donnie! And I guess JD couldn’t carry Orban over the finish like. LOL! What a lightweight. And, my favorite, empty suit.
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It was interesting how Magyar figured out how to break into Fidesz strongholds in the countryside. What are rural values anyway? It may be something quite different compared to a century ago. The “ultra rural” was among to strongest Trump-supporting categories earlier, but they seem to be realizing he ain’t the Cyrus and certainly hasn’t improved their material lot. Only resource extractors have benefitted from having a free hand, but in many cases it’s a one-time high for their lifetime. Perhaps a forest will grow back, a fishery recover, depleted soils again become fertile, groundwater formations clean and recharged, and biodiversity reestablished, but not for many lifetimes. Like in Hungary, the ostensibly conservative-Christian people in America’s vast boonies may already see, or directly experience, the corruption, the neglect, the lies and immiseration brought on by GOP non-governance and self-dealing.
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“Orban Falls”
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From CNN -
His platform focused on domestic bread-and-butter issues rather than the foreign policy-heavy focus of the previous administration. His platform focused on rejuvenating the stagnant Hungarian economy, combating corruption, and addressing the decline in public services, with a strong appeal to both rural voters and young people.
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A key quote from this article:
Authoritarians want people to feel a sense of helplessness and despair, to demobilise them and suppress dissent. Offering messages of hope, allowing voters to dream of a better future, and reminding them that it’s in their hands helps them maintain morale, particularly in competitive authoritarian regimes with mostly free but unfair elections.
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If only…
Plus 90% of the speeches Aaron Sorkin also wrote for The West Wing.
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Orban dropped three points in the polls following JD’s visit. He’s an empty suit filled with bad juju.
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And it didn’t hurt that his last name means ‘Hungarian.’
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Yes, but caution should still be had.
Orban is still in charge for another month or so. He could still make things difficult for the new majority that isn’t in place yet. Magyar has already warned against it, so there is that possibility.
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I was thrilled to see Orban defeated (heckuva job, J.D.!) but I remain cautiously optimistic that Magyar will follow through on his campaign promises. Getting rid of Orban is huge…
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I wonder how much gerrymandering hurt Orban. The whole idea is to spread out your voters to get majorities in more districts. Yet if there’s a wave against you this also means that you lose what should be your strongholds. Let’s hope this happens in Texas!