Democrats got a banner victory in Wisconsin Monday evening as liberal Jill Karofsky dethroned incumbent State Supreme Court justice Daniel Kelly.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1303745
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1303745
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1 million people voted in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary.
600,000 people voted for the progressive candidate in the 2019 SCOWI contest.
600,000 people voted for the conservative candidate in the 2019 SCOWI contest.
900,000 people voted in the 2020 Democratic primary.
856,000 people voted for the progressive candidate in the 2020 SCOWI contest.
692,000 people voted for the conservative candidate in the 2020 SCOWI contest.
630,000 people voted in the GOP’s 2020 primary.
Conclusion: It was the presidential primary that drove the increased voter participation that won this seat.
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“Plague and unemployment may ultimately have a big role to play.”
Both issues spell doom for Trump as people look for change.
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Franklin is the guru, when it comes to Wisconsin voting data. And it is undoubtedly true that a lot will happen between now and November. However: Democrats winning by a ten-point margin, in races that historically go down to the wire and are won by the GOP like soccer matches are won by Germany, tells us that the Democratic base in Wisconsin is fired-up and above all organized, and that the GOP base is less so. This is a damn sight better than the opposite.
It’s also a big positive in the larger scheme of things. I’m not talking about November (when I think Biden will win). I’m thinking of the general truth that healthy and successful grassroots politics of the kind that drives special-election turnout is what is required to keep winning. And make no mistake, victory in November will only be the beginning of the work that lies ahead. We need to capture state legislatures and courts, draw fair maps, and pass a shitload of progressive laws. Moving forward can only happen with grassroots on fire–and that’s what we saw in Wisconsin.
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This Winconsin election will go down in history as the first time Republicans took voter-suppression to the level of actually trying to kill the voters.
Nobody can say the GOP has lost its innovative edge!
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WI Dem chair Ben Wikler deserves a lot of credit.
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Chicago flag mask for the win. From a firefighter’s funeral.
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My takeaway is that every state should have a permanent early voter list like Arizona has. You register once and get on the list once, and they mail you a ballot automatically.
Wisconsin doesn’t have it yet. So everyone should always vote absentee, always request their ballot for the next election the day after the last one, and always mail it back the day after receiving it, so there’s no question, no controversy, no dependence on the timeliness of the post office putting the right stamp on there.
I just checked myvote.wi.gov and my ballot to elect Tricia Zunker to fill the seat abandoned by Republican Sean “can’t live on $174,000” Duffy, was mailed to me yesterday.
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Very good points. Here’s this from Charlie Sykes’ analysis in The Bulwark:
“But it was the overall margin that was so stunning to both parties. Even with all of the caveats, several things seemed clear: the vote reflected a surge in Democratic enthusiasm and suggested a surprisingly effective turn-out operation in a state that could determine the outcome of this November’s presidential election. That doesn’t mean that Biden will win the state in November. But there was no good news for the GOP or Trump out of Wisconsin last night…”
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He’s the guy to follow on Twitter for all Wisconsin Democratic Party news. Incredible work by him.
That being said, Republicans still hold a 4-3 edge on the state Supreme Court, and they could still try to throw people off the voting rolls. Bears watching, but let’s celebrate a huge victory for today.
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The existence of the primary itself? Or the presence of two plausible candidates in it?
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You may wish to rethink that statement. Church bombing, lynchings, etc.
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I read this morning that one Republican member of the court defected previously on the voting rolls case and is expected to defect this time, too. If that’s right, the voting rolls will be safe. I’m happy to be corrected if I got this wrong.
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As I posited elsewhere:
As you correctly state, Presdential Races drive turnout…
Is it possible that Bernie stayed in to drive the WI turn-out to favor the Dems?
I would not be surprised if Perez and the DNC strategists discussed this with Bernie. They knew what the stakes were vis a vis the WI SC…
If that was the case it was a masterful stroke and example of how politics is a game that is driven by what you do not hear or see…
We may never likely know…
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(Sadly, it was Democrats at that point in history. True, they later became Republicans, but still…)
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The latter. Without a competitive GOP presidential primary in 2020, something like only 630,000 voters showed up for it. With a competitive primary in 2016 (won by Ted Cruz), 1.1 million turned out on the GOP side.
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