Originally published at: Political Betting Markets Remain Over-Valued - TPM – Talking Points Memo
If you’ve followed my thinking on this you know I’ve long had a pretty low opinion of political betting markets. Their user base tends to lean right, with the built-in bias you would expect that to cause. They’re also prone to manipulation. But the biggest problem is that, in my view, they’re largely derivative of…
1 Like
I totally agree with Josh’s take here. I’ve been a long time user of PredictIt and recent convert to polymarket. Since 2016, it’s been possible to make money betting against MAGA because there a re a huge number of irrational MAGA bettors. The rightward tilt of the platforms is obvious as you use them for a long time. It’s probably only off by 5-10% these days, and was off by 15% or so during the Trump administration, but it really adds up.