We start the day at 960,000 corona virus cases and 54,254 deaths. We will almost certainly top 1 million cases by Monday, a politically significant threshold. At our current pace, we will reach 60,000 fatalities by Tuesday or Wednesday.
One moderately good thing that happened this past week is testing did increase. There were 1.46 million tests conducted last week, about 40% more than the prior week. However, given how late we are in responding in a coordinated fashion to the virus, we really need to be at 3 million tests per week, at minimum. Ideally, we should be at 5 million tests per week in order to re-open the economy safely.
One thing we are seeing with even just a modest bump in testing is a lower hit rate (14% now as opposed to around 19% last week) as the smarter states are starting to ramp up to a ‘mass testing level’. By pairing testing with social distancing, states like CA, NY, MD, MA are starting to find and contain the virus. However, case loads are very high, and because there is no cure, a lot of people will still continue to die through the month of May. With more testing there will be more cases found, but like CA, you’ll see the hit rate drop. CA had a hit rate of over 11% and now it’s down to 8.42% after a massive week of testing.
Washington and Hawaii are doing a great job and will be in a position to open up in May in phases.
NY’s hit rate remains stubbornly high, but their case load increased by 19% this past week and 58% over the past 2 weeks, which is a slower pace than most of the Trump 2016 states.
With 1 million cases in the system by tomorrow, we project to 88,000 - 110,000 deaths. As we find more positives among asymptomatic and lightly symptomatic folks, we can get the hit rate and fatality counts lower.
However, I think we are experiencing a MAGA surge over the past few weeks so several states where there is hostility to social distancing (mainly among suburban and rural folks) you will see more clusters emerge.