One year into the pandemic, much of what we think we know about the number of people who have died may be wrong.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1362890
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1362890
Let me know when they “recalculate” florida’s death toll. I know of one data analyst who would be most helpful.
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And the estimated total mortality including excess deaths accounted for by this new method is …???
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If we didn’t have a substantial number of deaths because of the stress the pandemic put on the medical system, that’s an incredible tribute to the people who make up that system. A lot of them documented the exhaustion, stress, rage, despair, and sorrow they were going through but still they kept on. Others might have done that if they hadn’t died. I could certainly see commissioning some sort of monument to that effort when this is all over.
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Does the new figure (which is not mentioned, BTW) take into account the brave volunteers of the Dan Patrick Suicide Battalion?
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Yeah I don’t get it.
Did the US population age that dramatically between Dec 31, 2019 and Jan 1, 2020?
And the excess mortality is despite the fact that pandemic related measures effectively eliminated deaths due to several other factors, such as the flu (20-30k deaths at a bare minimum), other diseases, car accidents due to lockdowns, etc.
There might be some minor upticks in deaths due to mental health, and for some reason murders, but the uptick is not in the tens of thousands.
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Oh, FFS…
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It seems to say the previous estimate was that the actual deaths might be a third again higher, but that the latest thinking is the actual reported estimate of 516,000 at press time accounts for the “vast majority” of deaths. So it’s pretty rough, but say somewhat higher but not a third, at any rate.
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Pro life.
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Ah, so it’s a guess? Seriously an estimate with the standard error around the estimate would help a lazy wretch such as myself.
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I automatically add 10% to the current total – so in my mind the United States is pushing towards 575,000 deaths.
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Good heavens, no. It’s statistical analysis. 
You’re asking the wrong guy. I was forced to take one math course in my undergrad days and I remember the statistics part being especially onerous. Just never took to math. I mentioned this once in an editorial office and a lot of the other word nerds started chiming in that they were the same way.
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A monument and a National Hero’s Day with essential workers getting triple time if they have to work.
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I’ll have to overcome my intellectual torpor and check out the original research, then.
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I get the point about about aging baby boomers being responsible for us dying at a somewhat higher rate, ~10%? The article goes through great lengths to avoid putting a number on excess deaths, and it is already far outdated. What it entirely ignores is there the number of death from the regular old flu this year was down by 95%, and that is a large factor in what would have been picking off the boomers. So can we just quite the “now-cast” crap and produce a number?
I say that judging by the clip that is just starting to trend downward that the excess deaths is 50% high than the reported COVID death count, something like 750,000.
Thoughts?
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The Catholic Church expressed “moral concerns” over the J&J vaccine.
Irony really is dead.
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I think we should get more serious about the gender attribution of Mr Potatohead and about Dr. Seuss’ cancelling.
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That phrase has always pissed me off. Typically low wage workers who are badly needed but with no increase in pay. A custodian at my old school told me his boss had deemed them “essential workers” and I told him that meant they were expendable. I’m not sure if he was bright enough to have figured that out.
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It’s the standard one. All of those types of vaccines are derived from stem cells from an aborted fetus several decades ago.
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But can we dismiss the flu as a nonentity if we don’t know the average age of person who dies of the flu?
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