A top White House coronavirus adviser pushing to “reopen” the country with minimal COVID-19 restrictions explained Tuesday that there was “no such thing as no risk in life.”
Atlas used the example of his 93-year-old mother-in-law, whom he said told him recently: “‘I’m not interested in being confined to my home. I’m not interested in living if that’s the life.’”
Ah…yes…the overwhelming statistical strength of n=1.
This quack isn’t qualified to give advice on how to manage a pandemic. He’s just a politically motivated miscreant abusing his MD degree to feign special expertise. It’s like having a proctologist do your heart transplant. Sure you want an MD doing your heart surgery, but not that kind of MD.
Scott Atlas upchucked Tuesday that there was “no such thing as no risk in life.”
True. But there are wise choices that reduce risk. There are posterior probabilities and prior probabilities, too, if you wanna get down and get all Bayesian with me. I’m not gonna go there now, and will instead keep it simple. Probabilities range from 0.0 (not gonna happen) to 1.0 (gonna happen).
So let’s say that you wanna cross the street. During the day, traffic is absolutely killer busy and everyone is speeding. The probability of getting contacted by a moving vehicle is, say 0.8. The probability that the energy imparted into your body will kill you is, say 0.9. The total probability that you die during an attempted daylight crossing of the street is 0.8*0.9=0.72. 72 out of 100 attempts you become a corpse.
Now, during the night there’s a lot less traffic, but the assholes still drive fast. The probability of getting contacted by a moving vehicle is, say 0.05. The probability that the energy imparted into your body will kill you is the same as in the above example, 0.9. The total probability that you die during an attempted nighttime crossing of the street is 0.05*0.9=0.045. 4.5 out of 100 attempts you become a corpse.
So you feel a little safer crossing that street from Hell at night. Dr. Fauci wants you to cross the street during the night when it’s safer. Scott Atlas doesn’t care when you attempt to cross the street, because “there’s no such thing as no risk in life.” But there is such a thing as bone-headed brain-dead flat-lined dumbass stupid. So Scott, if you’re reading, just STFU and leave the recommendations to epidemiologists, you goddamn hack.
But there is such a thing as greater risk for worse health and economic outcomes, which your “plan” guarantees, relative to even the worst plans coming from real scientists.
A top White House coronavirus adviser pushing to “reopen” the country with minimal COVID-19 restrictions explained Tuesday that there was “no such thing as no risk in life.”
so then let’s make drunk driving legal & take the restrictions off of tobacco !
He’s actually promoting genocide against his own people. We’ve lost 220,000. Let’s assume we’ve infected 10% of the population, even though it might be considerably below that. Let’s also assume that we have the same ventilator-to-ICU-patient ratio regardless of the number of infected (and this is really generous, because once you run out of ventilators and/or ICU beds, the death rate will increase dramatically).
Based on the above, assuming a linear relationship, to obtain 100% infection while assuming no recurrence of individual infection, we’re looking at 2.2 million dead. Considering that this number could have been kept dramatically lower than the 220,000 that are now dead, I consider that genocide. Trump’s policies are mass murder and Trump is a lazy mofo who repeatedly demonstrates depraved indifference to our suffering.
Because “there is no such thing as no risk” we should stop trying to reduce risk. Take all the lightning rods off tall buildings, wasted money. Remove the child proof locks from cars. Why do you think God made you able to have multiple children? Start recruiting astronauts massively, because once NASA starts ignoring its risk managers we’re gonna be burning through shitloads of 'em.
Why isn’t this guy selling used cars in some backwater? Oh yeah, Trump.
Atlas used the example of his 93-year-old mother-in-law, whom he said told him recently: “‘I’m not interested in being confined to my home. I’m not interested in living if that’s the life.’”
Look, people die all the time. You know how many people died last year in the United States? 2.8 million. This year it will be even more. People die in the shower. People die in bed. People die when they cross the street. Who can know when and how they will die? People are fooling themselves if they think they can cheat death. So why not live a little along the way? Go to that motorcycle rally you always wanted to go to. Come on down to the Rose Garden for a ceremony for our Supreme Court nominee. Give your grandparents a big hug. And most of all, go back to work and don’t worry about the person coughing next to you.
Boy, the Hoover Institute sure wants the pandemic to kill off as many blacks and hispanics as possible. Who knew they were so racist? I mean, we all knew they sit around circle jerking to Ayn Rand’s puerile twaddle, but this is a new low…
When someone has resorted to the false argument of there being no 100% solution to something in this manner, you can pretty much guarantee that you can write them off and never listen to a word they have to say forever and anon. “No guarantees” and “No such thing as no risk” are straw man code for “I have no solutions and I want you to suffer the consequences.”
Long before Trump touched down in the political world it was easy to see you could find people with professional training in all kinds of scientific stuff who, because of their emotional makeup or prejudices or whatever, believed utterly irrational things about various hot-button topics. What Trump did was set up his administration as a kind of nature preserve where these quacks, endangered by their more sensible peers in the reality-based community, could live in safety and impose their idiocies on the rest of us in peace. It’s like they built a preserve for rhinos around your town overnight, and when you complained about all the rhinos the next morning they said there’s “no such thing as no risk.”