New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) on Monday noted an increase in New York City residents who tested positive for the presence of COVID-19 antibodies in recent days. According to state survey data that he described at a press conference, nearly a quarter of Big Apple residents showed signs of an immune response to the disease.
I remind people that imagine Cynthia Nixon (actress) was Governor in NY now? This is why we can’t elect amateurs anymore for any elected position.
I would really like to know the percentage of false positives and false negatives for each type of antibody test in order to determine a statistical confidence level.
If you’re using these tests to return people to work, then false negatives are very bad.
A false positive indicates an exposure that may not have occurred, and since we don’t yet know about the likelihood of reinfection given the presence of antibodies, the indication of the presence of antibodies doesn’t do much good unless you’re just trying to estimate the number of allegedly infected people.
The New York survey’s focus on grocery and big box stores may also skew numbers higher, by sampling people who are shopping in public rather than staying home.
Nonetheless, Cuomo asserted Monday that the tests provided “snapshots” of the disease’s presence in New York.
“Snapshot, snapshot, snapshot,” he said. “You look at the different pictures and you have a movie.”
Not exactly the “gold standard” of statistical design. And, “snapshot”, snapshot! snapshot” and you have the disorganized box of photographs that grandma insists on hauling out and boring guests and the repair people with.
With the virus-related data continuing to paint a relatively encouraging picture in recent days, Mr. Cuomo and Mr. Murphy have begun to offer details about how their states will reopen in the months ahead.
On Sunday, Mr. Cuomo said that after May 15, when his order shutting down New York is set to expire, businesses in what he called low-risk industries like construction and manufacturing might begin to reopen in parts of the state that have been less affected by the virus.
On Monday, Mr. Murphy said on CNBC that coordination between New York and New Jersey would probably be closest in the extended New York City metropolitan area, where the virus has hit with particular force.
Elsewhere, he said, “I don’t think you’ll see us taking in each case identical steps, but I think you’ll see our steps harmonized.”
The comments suggested that less hard-hit regions of both states would open earlier than the regional epicenter of the outbreak — downstate New York, including New York City, and northern New Jersey.
Mr. Murphy said schools might reopen before the end of June.
New Jersey’s stay-at-home order would remain in place until at least May 15, he said.
Consider the audience, hoarding toilet paper and swilling bleach. The simpler he explains things the better chance of being understood.
I suppose, but I like my politicians smart enough to know when they should refrain from making stupid analogies.
This is great news, and I don’t want to sound like a doomer, but I really wish they would release some information about the methodology here.
I can almost guarantee that the investigators did not employ stratified random sampling.
And BTW
I’ve heard that the New Yorker article makes Cuomo, along with DeBlasio, out to be incompetent. I have no idea, but he does know how to call out Republican blowhards.
Let’s hope she at least wipes them down afterward.
While 22.5% of Hispanic/Latino New Yorkers had tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies as of April 22, when the governor had shared weighted survey results, 32% of the same demographic had tested positive by April 27, Cuomo said, a nearly 10 point jump.
These folks are very family oriented, tend to have large families and are working in essential jobs right now. They also tend toward congregating in large groups, or at least they let their children do so. Over the weekend I observed groups of children numbering from less than ten to more than twenty.
I’ve no idea if the message is not reaching their community or they’re choosing to ignore it. Either way I hope they come out of this better than it appears they will.
Can’t be said enough, but add “entitled” to Manhattan actress Cynthia Nixon.
If these results are reliable and can be duplicated, it gives us an idea of how widespread the infection was in this population. This does not mean they have immunity now and cannot become re-infected. But it is a good data point.
He’s baaaack.
What he enjoyed most was the berating of reporters during the Q&A section of the previous briefings. So basically, he’s cut out the briefing part and gone straight to the “beat the press” part.
Also can be a bias in terms of who is getting these test.
But overall it looks like the virus is less deadly than originally thought, but spreads faster.
Since I work for a state/city agency I have been working from home since mid March. Our tentative date to go back to the office is May 15th but could be later.
Hopefully there will be mass testing in our offices.
Really hard to understand what these test results mean.
Do people who show positive have symtoms or are they resistant the the virus? Are some of us immune?
Huh? In NYC the total number of cases is 156,100, with 11,708 confirmed death (plus 5,228 probable deaths). That’s a 7.5% mortality rate (not including the probables). If that’s “less deadly than originally thought,” what was the original thought?!
That’s good news. It means he’ll be reading a prepared text. Always worth a chuckle or two.
My understanding is that these tests look for antibodies for the virus in the blood. If they have the antibodies, that means that they’ve had the virus at some point in the past. So some of the people may have been symptomatic in the past and some may never have been symptomatic, but probably none of them are currently infected.
Whether that means they are now immune or not is hard to say. Some viruses don’t change much and therefore once you have the antibodies, you’re mostly immune for life (e.g. measles). Other viruses mutate rapidly, so you’ll need to develop new antibodies if you get exposed again (e.g. influenza). Since this a novel coronavirus, we simply don’t know how effective the antibodies will be in the long-term.