While President Trump finally admitted his administration is weighing a payroll tax cut to avoid a recession, he and other top White House officials have been working overtime to tout the strength of the U.S. economy, a necessary component of President Trump’s reelection bid.
It’s actually pretty fucking scandalous that top Republican donors are getting different economic guidance from the executive branch than is being offered to rank-and-file Americans.
Even if that guidance is simultaneously obvious (we’re in danger of falling into a recession) and hopelessly wrong (we can be sure of its magnitude and duration).
I agree that Trump will not react well to this bit of reality piercing the White House. Problem is that when it comes, the country has little to combat it - interest rates are already low and the deficit makes further stimulus a dicey proposition. I read that the WH is floating a payroll tax cut - I’d be OK with that as long as it is fully offset with marginal rates going back up.
It’s important for people to understand that presidents receive too much credit for a good economy and too much blame for a downturn.
But, when you manipulate the economy as Trump and his moron minions are doing, skewing distribution and supply of capital to benefit the wealthy, we have to speak up with honesty and candor.
Hey now just how are the .01% to be able to play markets, etc if they don’t have the same info the rest of the 99.9% of us have.
The nation experienced 10 recession cycles between 1945 and 2001, recessions lasted an average of 10 months and expansions an average of 57 months. The U.S. economy likely surpassed an important milestone last month, July 2019. Americans are now experiencing the longest economic expansion in the nation’s history, assuming the data still being collected bears this out. So the nation should expect a pullback as the longer an expansion takes the greater likelihood of an extended period of recession will result.
So a short or mild recession is not historically in the cards.
Just like the Vietnam War. During the ‘5 O’clock Follies’ as press briefings were known, American casualties were always described as ‘light to moderate’.
All the statistics above is to explain a simple concept. A booming economy will lead to a recession because the economy will overheat or create a bubble that will burst. The longer we artificially extend our expansion or economic boom, the bigger the recession we create. The natural business cycle’s economic boom will create more wealth than the recession will erode. When we artificially affect the economy, we throw the natural business cycle out of order. Thus, we may lose more than the wealth we’ve created during the economic boom.