Can’t Imagine Trump Removal?
Weird, it’s all I imagine…
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You know that Mitch absolutely does not want to hold that vote. It’s a lose/lose for him. The fact that he has been saying thus far that he has to hold a trial because “the rules of impeachment are very clear” makes me wonder if he really isn’t angling to get Trump to resign. I mean, since when do rules matter to Moscow Mitch?
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Could he imagine not voting on a replacement of a SCOTUS justice nominee for a vacant seat?
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Doesn’t that usually go to Jack Daniels or Jim Beam?
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No way in Hell Trump’s narcissism will let him resign. Only way he leaves is getting dragged out by the Secret Service.
That said…Ipsos for ABC is out with the first “post hearing” poll I have seen this morning. Interviews on Nov 16-17 (Sat and Sunday), show that
(1) 58% of the public is following the hearings; very closely (21%) or somewhat closely (37%)
(2) 51% support impeachment AND removal.
(3) Another 6% support impeachment BUT NOT removal.
(4) Another 13% say Trump’s actions “were wrong” but don’t support impeachment or removal.
(5) 25% say Trump’s actions were not wrong.
(6) 21% say that they reached their current view “after the hearings in this house this week”
Note his is a “discussion panel poll” in which Ipsos sends the questions they asked to a sample of people they have on file to answer questions who are weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region to represent a snap-shot of the US population. This was also done over the weekend, which is always a little concerning (although it is slightly less of a worry with this type of a poll than a randomly selected sample). Sample was also not huge (only 506)
Ipsos does a lot of polling (all using a similar “discussion panel” approach, so I tried to find their most recent similar poll on impeachment. They did one for Reuters on Nov 4-5 (i.e. before the current hearings and releases of transcripts started) with a full size sample of 1100. It showed that
(a) 45% support impeachment
(b) 41% did not support impeachment.
Since the question was asked a little differently (i.e. they did not ask about “removal”) what this appears to show is a movement from 45% for “impeachment” to now 57% for impeachment (+12%) and what appears to be 41% against impeachment to now 38% against impeachment (-3%).
I don’t want to too overstress this, what I really want to see is a high quality live operator poll, and I doubt we see one till mid-week at the earliest. And I again suggest that what is important is not to look at the headline number, but rather to look at the movement in the poll from a prior release. Here that movement was very substantial.
As I keep saying, if the hearings Push Trump’s approval down into the mid-30s, the republicans will start to break from him, and if he goes below 35% approval, my guess is that the Senate will remove him. But you can bet that smart republicans (those who are facing election in competitive races this year or in 2020) are watching very carefully where the numbers are going. And a reminder that support for removal was nowhere near 50% when hearings were ongoing:
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He just has to cast it as a “win”. If he could turn 5 bankruptcies into “wins” in his mind, a single resignation should be easy.
And his possible resignation has not much to do with impeachment things currently going on, but everything to do with all of his other legal issues, like that financial stuff, which he’d dearly love a pardon for.
If he waits until he’s gone from office, forget it, he’s got nothing to offer his successor to give him one.
But he does have a year left of a thing of value that he could offer now in exchange for that pardon.
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Hard to imagine anything positive getting 67 votes in the Senate. So he is correct.
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Agreed - Donnie talks a big game but he always settles. It will be for health reasons with a promise of pardon for ‘good’ of country…
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What about Trump’s self-removal as in resignation. Has McConnell ever thought of that?
What about resigning once his tax returns are made public? He is deadly afraid of that happening so they must be very damning.
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“I’ve got this thing and it’s fucking golden”
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No matter the crime, no matter how heinous, no matter how blatant … Moscow Mitch has his orders from Vlad … and Mitch will deliver some twisted corrupt form of “jury nullification” … something on the level of a good ole boy jury handing up a not guilty for one of their buddies who is guilty as sin …
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But if vlad issues new orders mitch will turn on a dime. And at this point vlad has to mostly be thinking about maximizing chaos.
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“We need to learn how to behave better, how to disagree without anger …”
…he said after throwing out childish insults about “derangement syndrome”, completely ignoring the merits so far established by the impeachment testimony…
Sorry, Moscow Mitch, but the GOP has made it nigh impossible for this country to get back to anything resembling order, peace and comity without first having to crush and subjugate the Confederacy all over again.
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“I can’t imagine a scenario under which President Trump would be removed from office with 67 votes in the Senate,” McConnell said.
Such utter depravity in this man.
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"…how to put Country before party or getting reelected. "
How about that Mitch?
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My prediction - not a single Republican senator will vote to convict Trump. Not a single one.
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The scenario, #ditchMoscowMitch, is the one where you walk into the Oval Office with 30 of your closest GOP friends and tell Trump that every last one of them will vote for his impeachment unless he resigns NOW. Not tomorrow, not next week. NOW. Those 30 of your closest GOP friends are the ones that will worry obsessively about Trump ruining your and their chances for re-election next year if he doesn’t resign NOW.
That’s the scenario that you publicly say you can’t imagine, but it’s the one that keeps you up nights, worrying.
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Nope - only on Fifth Avenue in NYC would he ever do that.
@inversion, sadly, the media continue to portray the GOP version of the House which couldn’t be farther from the truth.
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Mitch is lying.
It’s his job to envision possible scenarios and then take the actions required to maximize the odds that the outcome he wants occurs.
His telling us otherwise means last week was worse for the GOP than he’d expected.
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