Good write up from the Ukrainians on the state of the war as it gives a clearer sense of the big picture.
The short summary: the Russians have sharply reduced their ambitions as many battlefronts have stalled out. They’re really looking to fully seize all of Luhansk Oblast, as they controlled about half of it pre-war through their pro-Russian LPR proxies and now occupy about 85%-90% of it as UKR has staged a war of attrition and tactical retreats to keep their undermanned forces in this region viable while they defended and liberated other parts of the country. The Russian attempts to grab more of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts have essentially stalled out or failed.
They are attempting to strike new advances in Kherson and Zaporizhia but those have failed to date and may only be feints or stunts to distract UKR.
The big news from this piece is that UKR is planning a big counteroffensive in Donbas/East to commence in June. The Russians know this and that’s why there is more nervousness there and why they are loading up concentrated forces in the town of Popasna to strike in several directions, but keep getting mowed down at strategic crossing points. A Ukrainian full scale offensive is likely to push the Russians firmly back in key areas and it will build momentum upon itself as the country sees the possibility of decisively beating the Russians.
I think this is also why the NYT editorial calling for appeasement on the heels of passing lend lease was published when it did. I have little doubt that the NYT editorial board is a corrupt institution to maintain elite power, in essence an institution of white supremacy. They see the Democratic Party as a threat to their privileged perch. I have no doubt that the Russians and their GOP friends contacted the Ed board to urge them to publish an editorial calling for UKR to cede territory in exchange for ‘peace’. I think the Russians are trying to change the narrative and get their GOP friends and those the GOP can influence to undermine the Biden policy, shift the narrative and help Russia avoid what’s coming to them.
A Ukrainian offensive will not be casualty free. Zelenskyy has been preparing his people for that. To date, UKR casualties have been relatively low as compared to the sheer amount of munitions fired at military and civilian targets. They’ve done a good job of strategic, luring Russians to advance, counterattacking, destroying supply lines and then pushing back while staying out of direct frontal confrontations. That changes now as UKR is supplied and now has upwards of 600k-700k folks (per Zelensky) in the fight, a larger standing army than the Russians probably have available to them at this point. However, I do believe that once UKR starts pushing forward, the Russians may not have the will to stick around if UKR starts racking up wins and advances. That said, we’re in the period before the big shift to a new phase of the war, one which I think Ukraine is going to win and perhaps put the Putin regime on its heels.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/05/22/russo-ukrainian-war-day-87-russia-continues-all-out-attacks-to-take-full-control-of-luhansk-oblast/?swcfpc=1