We’ll be following first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary as Granite Staters vote for the Democratic presidential nominee Tuesday. Coming out of the disastrous Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire will offer a solid glimpse of where the candidates stand and how they’ll maneuver their campaigns in Nevada, South Carolina and beyond.
Go Bernie!
Pete got a couple of late polls in his favor. Here are my predictions:
Electorate: 18-34: 18%; 35-49: 22%; 50-64: 35%; 65+ 24%. That’s a pretty good electorate for Pete as he has a consistent level of performance across all age demos (17%-21%). Bernie is a bit top heavy, getting most of his votes from younger voters.
Now for the order/percentages
Bernie-Pete tie (+/- 2%. Irrelevant for delegate calculation purposes, but I’ll say Bernie 26%, Pete 25%).
Warren - 16%
Biden - 15%
Klobuchar - 11.5%
Gabbard - 2%
Yang - 2%
Bloomberg - 1%
Steyer - 1%
Turnout: 267k.
You have Bloomberg at only 1%? I think he’ll do better than that. Maybe 5%, and a little more wouldn’t surprise me. All at Biden’s expense.
Bernie should enjoy this while it lasts because this is the last primary he will win, with the exception of Vermont, perhaps. My Vermont friends are really tired of him, though.
What was the turnout in 2016?
I think, were his myth true, the number of votes cast in 2016 would exceed the number of voters registered in NH.
It’s all BS and the media report it, every last word, to cast doubt on the institution. Shame on them.
Write-ins are pretty hard at polling places outside of Dixville Notch… 1-2% is probably about right.
I think it will be:
Pete
Bernie
Amy/Elizabeth (statistical tie for 3rd)
Biden
Biden might not even reach the threshold for delegates.
These polls refute his numbers. Time will tell:
Klobuchar’s closing argument in the New Hampshire debate clearly touched a chord, and the polls have moved significantly her way: both the Suffolk University and Emerson College polls — the only ones that sampled voters immediately before and after the debates — both have Klobuchar surging to 14 percent and third place, ahead of both Warren and Biden and nipping at Buttigieg’s heels.
The article also includes the opinion that if Amy is the candidate, Republicans who are not enthused about Trump will most likely stay home because Amy will not propel them to the voting booth to stop her.
She has also raised 3 million since the New Hampshire debate.
I think we’ll see a Klobichar surge. She’s moderate, mature, and with the least baggage. She treated some of her staff poorly. In that regard, she’s a saint compared to Trump! The Republican knives have simply not been out for her, as they had been for decades for Hillary Clinton. Trump attacking her during the debate? She can ask him, hey bro, you going to grab me by the pussy? OK, she won’t say that, but she’ll stand there as a classy reminder of what a male chauvinist prick Trump is. And she’s pretty much an outsider, but with appropriate experience, unlike many of them. You heard it here first. (Or did you?)
Thanks, I didn’t know he wasn’t on the ballot. He isn’t on the Nevada ballot either, last I heard. Anyone know if he’s on the South Carolina ballots?
She also lied about Buttigieg in the last debate.
She did it deliberately, too—taking something he said out of context and quoting only one small part of what he actually said.
That’s not the behavior of someone I could support.
Can we not perpetuate the story that she mistreats her staff? It is not substantiated and feeds the storyline that impatient women who demand something from staff are doing something other than what men do every day.
Honestly, if that’s Klobuchar’s worst flaw, I’d accept that over what I have.
Super Tuesday is the first time he’ll actually be on a ballot – he skipped the first four races.
All over social media and conservative owned papers they are already trying to hurt klobuchar with a case she prosecuted against a black teen who was convicted for his part in the accidental killing of a young black girl with a stray bullet. Here’s the story that has been moving around lately:
Go Bernie!
Klobuchar being a nightmare to work for is fine (although having consistently high staff turnover isn’t desirable). But she reportedly tried to railroad her staff when they went for their next jobs. That’s fucked up and I won’t be pulling the lever for someone who does that unless I absolutely have to in the general. Obviously still better than Trump, but I don’t want to hear ‘her staff should have come forward’ from people on this board when we all know why they didn’t and know better than to blame the victims of abuse.