LIVEBLOG: The Nevada Democratic Caucuses

TPM Article Topics
1

Founder & Editor-in-Chief:

Executive Editor:

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1292479
2

It’ll be Sanders by a field goal.

2 Likes
3

“Nevada is incorporating early voting into the caucuses — early voters ranked their top five choices whenever they dropped by the polls. During realignment, the early votes whose number one choice was nonviable will get reshuffled to their highest-ranking choice who is still in the room. A large percentage of the ranked choice early voting has already taken place, with about 75,000 early ballots cast as of Wednesday this week.”

An example of rank-choice voting:

  • It’s on a state-wide scale.
  • It’s on paper ballots.
  • So far as we know, it’s worked beautifully in 75,000 cases.
  • It even works for early voting.

Assuming Nevada doesn’t turn into another Iowa fiasco…

Tell me again why we even need caucuses?

(And why every state isn’t using ranked-choice paper ballots.)

37 Likes
4

(posted from another thread)

NV is a very tough one to predict b/c the polling is truly garbage.

Here’s the raw polling avg. of all polls released in the last week:

Sanders 26%, Biden 16%, Pete 15%, Liz 11%, Amy 9%, Steyer 15% (yes…you read that right). After digging into internals and looking at data where I can find it, here are my predictions:

Age Demo: 18-34: 13%, 35-44: 18%, 45-54: 16%, 55-64: 20%, 65+ 33% (rounded)
Race: White 61%, Latinx 18%, African American 13%, Asian 4%, Other 4%

My current prediction on the first alignment is Bernie 28%, Biden 22%, Pete 17%, Liz 13% Amy 9%, Steyer 6%, Other 5%.

I have no clear idea on the 2nd alignment. Potentially, Biden/Pete can benefit from Amy/Steyer not making the cut.

The wildcards or unknowns that make the prediction very tenuous:

Latinx support. Some polls have Bernie doing exceedingly well. Other polling (Telemundo/Univision) show a much tighter race between Bernie and Biden among Latinx voters. I’m going with the latter data point. Honestly, though, it’s anyone’s guess.

White support. Biden appears to have fairly strong black support and probably good Latinx union member support. The wildcard for him is white support. Presently, he’s in the 13%-14% range. If he were to get up to 20% he’d have a very decent chance to make this a close race w/Bernie or even beat him under certain circumstances. However, if he can’t lift that white support, he might be in that 17%-20% range. 2nd alignment might get him there, but his best chance to win is to persuade more moderate white voters to support him on the first ballot. If he can get that to at least 18% he’ll have a reasonably good day.

Liz Warren - NV is not a good state for her demographically. Not enough college ed voters. Too many splits among that group with Pete/Amy. Low Latinx support per polling. She made a big impression in the debate the other night, but didn’t tag Bernie, so it’s not clear to me that she’ll get a boost among young voters. Don’t know where she gets the votes, but I think she’ll probably move some Amy voters back her way and may be take some from Pete. I don’t know if it will be enough to get past the threshold on 1st alignment. I have her at the borderline. If, however, Liz does get some younger voter support, it could hurt Bernie and make this thing a real crapshoot.

I think the Amy Klobuchar campaign is dead in NV. I’d be very surprised if she made the cut.

I think Pete has an outside shot to win. If he does, I do think it would change this race.

All in all, I’d expect Bernie to win the PV, but I’m projecting a delegate split that keeps things close and yields a minor Biden resurgence that he might be able to use to help win in SC. I do think if he gets to a close 2nd, delegate draw or even wins on second alignment, he’d see a big surge his way.

However, if he flops and finishes 4th, I think it could be Bloomberg time.

FWIW, a journalist I follow on twitter has spoken with various respected NV experts on background. Of 5 scenarios, Biden finishes 1st in 1, 2nd in 3, and fourth in 1. Pete only gets to #2 in 1 scenario. If Biden gets one of those happy scenarios to hit, then it could shift the tone and tenor of the campaign.

15 Likes
5

Not only that even super tues. States early voting started before the last debate. What is the DNC thinking?

2 Likes
6

Next you’ll be asking why we don’t use the metric system!

17 Likes
7

Watch out! Give @irasdad a centimeter, and he’ll take a kilometer.

(Doesn’t have quite the same ring, I think.)

15 Likes
8

That’s not hard to fathom.

15 Likes
9

I’m not going to spare the rod with you! Just who are you in league with?

10 Likes
10

Here’s what you meant to say:

   Give @irasdad 2.54 cm and he’ll take 1.61 km.

Better?

11 Likes
11

Is Harry Reid still staying out of it?

12

Oh, you anti-metric loons always want to do a hard conversion!

9 Likes
13

This is brilliant:

5 Likes
14

Cubits

5 Likes
15

BTW, if you keep this up, you’re going straight to ell.

9 Likes
16

This should become the 2020 anthem; it’s hard to beat Americans when we decide we have a song.

1 Like
17

As farthing as I can, until the Pun Police show up.

10 Likes
18

Lord we will have to chain you down.

5 Likes
19

… Nevada, characteristically, will decide by picking cards from an unopened pack provided to each precinct by the state party. They must be shuffled seven times before the picking. Aces are high, and the suits go spades, hearts, diamonds, then clubs.

Anybody know the rules of Fish?

I think all contestants should be forced to compete in a playoff of 14:1, straight pool, to 250.

7 Likes
20

The unfortunate thing for Warren is that so many Nevadans voted early…odds are she would do better without that baked in vote, or if it was a primary. Klobuchar got a lift from a debate performance that was just standout for her, not the dominance Warren displayed on Wednesday. It may have also made inroads with minority voters…Bloomberg really ticks them off generally, her takedown has apparently generated interest, though that may translate to more votes in SC.

The polling here is so shaky that I don’t know if anyone should expect the results to match. I think the only certainty is that Klobuchar’s campaign will hit a wall…minorities just don’t support her and she had an awful debate. Pete has the same problem, but he’s got a bigger base so he may do alright; SC is probably the hill his campaign dies on.

6 Likes