This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1293741
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1293741
LIVEBLOG: Super Tuesday
But ā¦ itās already Thursday.
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Just got back from voting.
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538ās current frozen model has Biden with roughly a 2:1 (65% to 34%) advantage over Sanders in likelihood of eventually securing a plurality of pledged delegates, which has me in a much happier and more comfortable mood than last weekās fever dream.
Never put Iowa in charge of anything ever again.
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Shouldnāt count on getting a return on the CA primary early . Might possibly be a day or two.
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RE-POSTED FROM ANOTHER THREAD:
Super Tuesday forecast/prediction thread. With so many wild changes in such a short time, everything is a crap shoot. Just trying to have some fun in a turbulent political time. So here goes. Biden wins 9 contests (AL, AR, TN, OK, NC, VA, MN, TX, AS). Bernie wins 6 (ME, VT, CO, UT, Democrats Abroad, CA). Warren wins MA.
In general, the Biden surge makes his margins in his strong states bigger, and Bernieās margins in his states smaller. Bloomberg will be Steyer 2.0. Heāll lose points in some states, hold steady in others, but wonāt gain that much. Warren is on the bubble but may well benefit from a smaller field as undecided have to go somewhere.
One thing to watch for: underestimating the size of the Biden surge. If Bidenās surge is say 3 to 5 points higher, Warren and Bloomberg may get swept under not place in many states. In addition, today will test Bernieās resiliency among Latinx voters, as they are perhaps the only reason he is still favored in CO/CA and to make it very close in TX.
Bernie has not been able to expand his numbers to the 40%-50% range, which has given Biden an opening due to consolidation. At some point, stuff has to add up to 100%. Not Bernie voters are turning out at a high clip while Bernie favored demos arenāt making up a high enough share of the electorate.
Hereās the state by state breakdown:
[NOTE: SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO NEW POLLING].
- Massachusetts: Pre-SC polls: Warren 20.2, Bernie 20.7, Biden 12.5, Bloomberg 11.3, Pete 12.4, Klounchar, 8.
Post-SC and realignments: Warren 33%, Bernie 23%, Biden 23%, Bloomberg, 13%, Pete 2.7%, Klobuchar 3%.
[NOTE: I will say that Iām not that confident in this MA prediction. Warrenās body language doesnāt look good and I could see Biden winning it].
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Maine: Few polls, but ME has a primary now. Older voters and a more moderate tilt among such voters will make this tight: Bernie 31%, Biden 27%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 14.7%, Pete 2%, Klobuchar 1%.
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Minnesota: Klobucharās last internal poll had her up 32-19-15 over Bernie/Biden. Biden had been gaining there over the past week. With Klobuchar dropping out, the lion share of that vote goes to Joe:
Biden 34.6%, Bernie 29.2%, Warren 13.9%, Bloomberg 8.8%, Amy 6.6%, Pete 1.7%.
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Utah: Few polls. First Dem primary in a long while (prior contests have been caucuses). Lots of VBM, older voters. Orientation of Dems is much more centrist (think Ben McAdams). Biden will place.
Bernie 28.2%, Biden 27.8%, Bloomberg 23.3%, Warren 17.4%, Pete 2.3%, Klobuchar 1%. -
Colorado: Few polls. Large undecided. Many voters waiting to see SC result. Biden will surge, but Bernieās strength with younger Latinx voters + Bloomberg will allow him to hold off Biden:
Bernie 33%, Biden 22%, Warren 18.3%, Bloomberg 18.8%. Iām not at all confident about the Warren /Bloomberg numbers. I think we could see a 5-7 point shift to Joe here to make the race even tighter.
- Alabama Similar demos to SC. Biden will put up an SC like result.
Biden 56%, Bloomberg 14%, Bernie 13.5%, Warren 8%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.
- Tennessee Biden will win the white moderate vote and black vote across the South.
Biden 47%, Bernie 20.8%, Bloomberg 17.8%, Warren 7.9%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.
- Arkansas. Few polls, but the SC ripple effect will happen here where Bidenās share of white voters will increase with Pete/Amy dropping out and Bloomberg voters shifting back to Biden by about 7%:
Biden 50.8%, Bernie 20.6%, Bloomberg 16.2%, Warren 9%, Pete 1%, Klobuchar 1%.
- Oklahoma Polls were tight here with Bloomberg doing well but Sanders never registered the same kind of pulse he had in 2016. A shift from Bloomberg to Biden, plus an alignment of white moderates and black voters will give Biden a clear win:
Biden 49%, Sanders 20%, Bloomberg 16%, Warren 8%, Pete 3%, Klo 2%
- Virginia It was a tight race Pre-SC per polling, but the demos favor Biden and theyāre lining up behind him. VA was the epicenter of the Dem resurgence in the Trump era that led to the 2018 blue wave. That electorate shows up for Biden today:
Biden 42.9%, Sanders 26.3%, Bloomberg 15.4%, Warren 12.6%, Pete 2%, Klobuchar 1%
- North Carolina Another tight race that opens up for Biden post-SC.
Biden 39.7%, Bernie 27.1%, Bloomberg 15.7%, Warren 10.9%, Pete 2.5%, Amy 2.1%.
- Texas Very tight race, but a late Biden surge among black, Latinx and white moderate voters gives Biden an edge:
Biden 31%, Bernie 30%, Bloomberg 17%, Warren 15%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.
[NOTE: If the new Civitas poll in NC showing Bloomberg dropping to 10% is correct and Biden gaining, you should see a ripple effect across the South, including TX. Bloomberg is the only reason the race is tight. If Bloomberg does fall further than the polls indicate, Biden could win TX by 4-5 points].
- California The center left awakens to make this a race. Biden is winning over 50% of those who are casting their ballots in the last 4-5 days (a majority of voters btw).
Bernie 34%, Biden 29%, Warren 19%, Bloomberg 13%, Pete 2.3%, Klobuchar 1%.
[NOTE: Iām not confident in that Warren number. Her body language does not look good. If Biden takes more Bloomberg/Warren vote, CA could be very, very close].
14-15. American Samoa - HRC won it last time by a big margin. About 300 people vote. Iāll say that itās 55-45. Dem Abroad: Bernie won last time, heāll win again.
- Vermont - Bernie wins but DFP has 2 others qualifying for delegates. Go figure.
The delegate differential between Biden/Bernie will be close, but Biden has the edge as the map shifts to him. Heāll clean up in FL, MO, LA, MS. Heāll also be in position, with a consolidated field, to win in the midwest.
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My flawless prediction: There will be much arm-waving, finger-pointing, and yelling at clouds this evening.
And thatās just on this forum. Oh, and Bernie might do some, too,.
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Erik, when I saw Jim Clyburnās introduction to Joe Biden, I felt much better. I am close to a number of caribenos and African Americans and Clyburn was eloquent, to say the least. He was speaking to his people and Sounding the Alarm.
I felt much better after Clyburn.
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Biden got a genuine bounce after SCāand the river of endorsements that followed----and it seems to be holding.
Bernie got a bounce after Nevadaāof the dead cat variety.
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$500 million / 23 Republican Senators eligible for throw out = $21.7 million against each incumbent.
Bloomberg could have been Democrat of the Century if heād spent his money smarter.
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He still has 62 Bn to spend.
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Letās not forget that after Super Tuesday about 60% of the delegates will still be remaining. We wonāt even be halfway there. And media narratives can change very quickly if someone has a bad interview or a bad debate. If Biden has a solid lead after tonight, itās a done deal. Heās the nominee. But if Biden and Sanders are tied, or if Sanders has a slight lead, put the VP predictions on hold and prepare for a tough slog.
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["Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) just declined an opportunity to comment on the state of the Democratic presidential contest, and specifically the wave of nominations Joe Biden has received in recent days, TPMās Kate Riga reports from Washington, D.C.
āI think the last thing any of the Democratic candidates for president need is an evaluation from Mitch McConnell as to what their strengths and weaknesses are,ā McConnell told reporters"]
The only time I have ever agreed with Moscow McConnell.
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Some judge really needs to slap this guy down. Is he in any danger of losing his seat?
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James Comey just announced heās backing Biden for President. Voted in his first Dem primary too, for what itās worth. Does this help Biden or hurt him? Lots of HRC supporter resentment towards this guy. From the Politico article:
But that endorsement was met with a chilly reception by at least one Biden staffer.
āYes, customer service? I just received a package that I very much did not order. How can I return it, free of charge?ā Andrew Bates, a communications staffer for Biden and an alum of Hillary Clintonās 2016 campaign, retorted in a tweet.
Trump will tweet about this of course, in 3,2,1ā¦
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Do you really need to be a Clinton supporter to care or just care about democracy?
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I donāt think he will lose his seat. That is the land of MAGAmorons.
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I saw something recently about Fresno moving leftwards, and the Fresno media really turning against Nunesā¦thatās going to be very bad for him, and the bits where it looks like he was working in Ukraine while overseeing the impeachment investigation will play poorly with any non-Trumpers. He didnāt win by a lot last time, I suspect heās in danger of losing his seat this time around.
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Of course not, but that group has the largest axe to grind, and with good reason. See the Biden stafferās comments above. Comey fucked up, we can all agree on that.
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