LIVEBLOG: Super Tuesday | Talking Points Memo

LIVEBLOG: Super Tuesday

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This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1293741

LIVEBLOG: Super Tuesday

But ā€¦ itā€™s already Thursday.

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Just got back from voting.

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538ā€™s current frozen model has Biden with roughly a 2:1 (65% to 34%) advantage over Sanders in likelihood of eventually securing a plurality of pledged delegates, which has me in a much happier and more comfortable mood than last weekā€™s fever dream.

Never put Iowa in charge of anything ever again.

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Shouldnā€™t count on getting a return on the CA primary early . Might possibly be a day or two.

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RE-POSTED FROM ANOTHER THREAD:

Super Tuesday forecast/prediction thread. With so many wild changes in such a short time, everything is a crap shoot. Just trying to have some fun in a turbulent political time. So here goes. Biden wins 9 contests (AL, AR, TN, OK, NC, VA, MN, TX, AS). Bernie wins 6 (ME, VT, CO, UT, Democrats Abroad, CA). Warren wins MA.

In general, the Biden surge makes his margins in his strong states bigger, and Bernieā€™s margins in his states smaller. Bloomberg will be Steyer 2.0. Heā€™ll lose points in some states, hold steady in others, but wonā€™t gain that much. Warren is on the bubble but may well benefit from a smaller field as undecided have to go somewhere.

One thing to watch for: underestimating the size of the Biden surge. If Bidenā€™s surge is say 3 to 5 points higher, Warren and Bloomberg may get swept under not place in many states. In addition, today will test Bernieā€™s resiliency among Latinx voters, as they are perhaps the only reason he is still favored in CO/CA and to make it very close in TX.

Bernie has not been able to expand his numbers to the 40%-50% range, which has given Biden an opening due to consolidation. At some point, stuff has to add up to 100%. Not Bernie voters are turning out at a high clip while Bernie favored demos arenā€™t making up a high enough share of the electorate.

Hereā€™s the state by state breakdown:

[NOTE: SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO NEW POLLING].

  1. Massachusetts: Pre-SC polls: Warren 20.2, Bernie 20.7, Biden 12.5, Bloomberg 11.3, Pete 12.4, Klounchar, 8.

Post-SC and realignments: Warren 33%, Bernie 23%, Biden 23%, Bloomberg, 13%, Pete 2.7%, Klobuchar 3%.

[NOTE: I will say that Iā€™m not that confident in this MA prediction. Warrenā€™s body language doesnā€™t look good and I could see Biden winning it].

  1. Maine: Few polls, but ME has a primary now. Older voters and a more moderate tilt among such voters will make this tight: Bernie 31%, Biden 27%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 14.7%, Pete 2%, Klobuchar 1%.

  2. Minnesota: Klobucharā€™s last internal poll had her up 32-19-15 over Bernie/Biden. Biden had been gaining there over the past week. With Klobuchar dropping out, the lion share of that vote goes to Joe:

Biden 34.6%, Bernie 29.2%, Warren 13.9%, Bloomberg 8.8%, Amy 6.6%, Pete 1.7%.

  1. Utah: Few polls. First Dem primary in a long while (prior contests have been caucuses). Lots of VBM, older voters. Orientation of Dems is much more centrist (think Ben McAdams). Biden will place.
    Bernie 28.2%, Biden 27.8%, Bloomberg 23.3%, Warren 17.4%, Pete 2.3%, Klobuchar 1%.

  2. Colorado: Few polls. Large undecided. Many voters waiting to see SC result. Biden will surge, but Bernieā€™s strength with younger Latinx voters + Bloomberg will allow him to hold off Biden:

Bernie 33%, Biden 22%, Warren 18.3%, Bloomberg 18.8%. Iā€™m not at all confident about the Warren /Bloomberg numbers. I think we could see a 5-7 point shift to Joe here to make the race even tighter.

  1. Alabama Similar demos to SC. Biden will put up an SC like result.

Biden 56%, Bloomberg 14%, Bernie 13.5%, Warren 8%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.

  1. Tennessee Biden will win the white moderate vote and black vote across the South.

Biden 47%, Bernie 20.8%, Bloomberg 17.8%, Warren 7.9%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.

  1. Arkansas. Few polls, but the SC ripple effect will happen here where Bidenā€™s share of white voters will increase with Pete/Amy dropping out and Bloomberg voters shifting back to Biden by about 7%:

Biden 50.8%, Bernie 20.6%, Bloomberg 16.2%, Warren 9%, Pete 1%, Klobuchar 1%.

  1. Oklahoma Polls were tight here with Bloomberg doing well but Sanders never registered the same kind of pulse he had in 2016. A shift from Bloomberg to Biden, plus an alignment of white moderates and black voters will give Biden a clear win:

Biden 49%, Sanders 20%, Bloomberg 16%, Warren 8%, Pete 3%, Klo 2%

  1. Virginia It was a tight race Pre-SC per polling, but the demos favor Biden and theyā€™re lining up behind him. VA was the epicenter of the Dem resurgence in the Trump era that led to the 2018 blue wave. That electorate shows up for Biden today:

Biden 42.9%, Sanders 26.3%, Bloomberg 15.4%, Warren 12.6%, Pete 2%, Klobuchar 1%

  1. North Carolina Another tight race that opens up for Biden post-SC.

Biden 39.7%, Bernie 27.1%, Bloomberg 15.7%, Warren 10.9%, Pete 2.5%, Amy 2.1%.

  1. Texas Very tight race, but a late Biden surge among black, Latinx and white moderate voters gives Biden an edge:

Biden 31%, Bernie 30%, Bloomberg 17%, Warren 15%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.

[NOTE: If the new Civitas poll in NC showing Bloomberg dropping to 10% is correct and Biden gaining, you should see a ripple effect across the South, including TX. Bloomberg is the only reason the race is tight. If Bloomberg does fall further than the polls indicate, Biden could win TX by 4-5 points].

  1. California The center left awakens to make this a race. Biden is winning over 50% of those who are casting their ballots in the last 4-5 days (a majority of voters btw).

Bernie 34%, Biden 29%, Warren 19%, Bloomberg 13%, Pete 2.3%, Klobuchar 1%.

[NOTE: Iā€™m not confident in that Warren number. Her body language does not look good. If Biden takes more Bloomberg/Warren vote, CA could be very, very close].

14-15. American Samoa - HRC won it last time by a big margin. About 300 people vote. Iā€™ll say that itā€™s 55-45. Dem Abroad: Bernie won last time, heā€™ll win again.

  1. Vermont - Bernie wins but DFP has 2 others qualifying for delegates. Go figure.

The delegate differential between Biden/Bernie will be close, but Biden has the edge as the map shifts to him. Heā€™ll clean up in FL, MO, LA, MS. Heā€™ll also be in position, with a consolidated field, to win in the midwest.

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My flawless prediction: There will be much arm-waving, finger-pointing, and yelling at clouds this evening.

And thatā€™s just on this forum. Oh, and Bernie might do some, too,.

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Erik, when I saw Jim Clyburnā€™s introduction to Joe Biden, I felt much better. I am close to a number of caribenos and African Americans and Clyburn was eloquent, to say the least. He was speaking to his people and Sounding the Alarm.

I felt much better after Clyburn.

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Biden got a genuine bounce after SCā€”and the river of endorsements that followed----and it seems to be holding.

Bernie got a bounce after Nevadaā€”of the dead cat variety.

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$500 million / 23 Republican Senators eligible for throw out = $21.7 million against each incumbent.

Bloomberg could have been Democrat of the Century if heā€™d spent his money smarter.

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He still has 62 Bn to spend.

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Letā€™s not forget that after Super Tuesday about 60% of the delegates will still be remaining. We wonā€™t even be halfway there. And media narratives can change very quickly if someone has a bad interview or a bad debate. If Biden has a solid lead after tonight, itā€™s a done deal. Heā€™s the nominee. But if Biden and Sanders are tied, or if Sanders has a slight lead, put the VP predictions on hold and prepare for a tough slog.

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["Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) just declined an opportunity to comment on the state of the Democratic presidential contest, and specifically the wave of nominations Joe Biden has received in recent days, TPMā€™s Kate Riga reports from Washington, D.C.

ā€˜I think the last thing any of the Democratic candidates for president need is an evaluation from Mitch McConnell as to what their strengths and weaknesses are,ā€™ McConnell told reporters"]

The only time I have ever agreed with Moscow McConnell.

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https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article240797241.html

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Some judge really needs to slap this guy down. Is he in any danger of losing his seat?

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James Comey just announced heā€™s backing Biden for President. Voted in his first Dem primary too, for what itā€™s worth. Does this help Biden or hurt him? Lots of HRC supporter resentment towards this guy. From the Politico article:

But that endorsement was met with a chilly reception by at least one Biden staffer.

ā€œYes, customer service? I just received a package that I very much did not order. How can I return it, free of charge?ā€ Andrew Bates, a communications staffer for Biden and an alum of Hillary Clintonā€™s 2016 campaign, retorted in a tweet.

Trump will tweet about this of course, in 3,2,1ā€¦

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Do you really need to be a Clinton supporter to care or just care about democracy?

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I donā€™t think he will lose his seat. That is the land of MAGAmorons.

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I saw something recently about Fresno moving leftwards, and the Fresno media really turning against Nunesā€¦thatā€™s going to be very bad for him, and the bits where it looks like he was working in Ukraine while overseeing the impeachment investigation will play poorly with any non-Trumpers. He didnā€™t win by a lot last time, I suspect heā€™s in danger of losing his seat this time around.

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Of course not, but that group has the largest axe to grind, and with good reason. See the Biden stafferā€™s comments above. Comey fucked up, we can all agree on that.

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