One month into the invasion of Ukraine, some Russian and pro-Russian figures are casting about for explanations and people to scapegoat as they attempt to justify why things may not be going entirely according to plan.
Putin’s plan to reconstitute a similar but different iteration of the Soviet Union is going to end up making Russia alone a third rate, third tier power.
I know virtually nothing of military strategy but the way this conflict seems to be going is like two MMA fighters beating each other round after round and, as the blood spatters, the only question is which one is going to be two damaged to leave his corner at the next bell.
A lot has been reported about the recent UKR gains in the western portion of Kyiv Oblast. But here we have a report from the US DoD which describes gains for Ukraine on the eastern side of Kyiv Oblast. The Russians are have now been pushed to 35 miles to the east of Kyiv, a gain of 15 miles for UKR. That would put the Russians at Rusanov, which is near the Oblast border and perhaps outside the Oblast itself.
Ukraine may now be in a position to drive the Russians out of Eastern Kyiv Oblast and drive through to Chernihiv and fully liberate that city.
Putin has just economic downside here. He has hurt Russia for some reason. Perhaps it was hubris, some vendetta, or madness. Anyway he’s become a costly liability.