TOKYO (AP) — Japanese officials are investigating an outbreak of the coronavirus among crew members of a cruise ship in Nagasaki, which has puzzled authorities because the southern port city has a relatively low number of infections and the vessel has been docked for almost three months.
LIBERATE Costa Atlantica!
In terms of global failures, I think this will be one of the biggest:
But the company acknowledged the following day that some members who passed body temperature checks and other requirements had been allowed off the ship.
We were too ignorant (and incautious) about how contagious this virus is even among asymptomatic people. We spent precious weeks giving the OK to people who simply did not have a fever or cough. And still some people think that is sufficient screening.
Costa Pandemica? I’m imagining a Jolly Roger flag with a stylized coronavirus in place of the skull, and maybe crossed syringes in place of the bones.
Details of the movements of the crew are not clear, but officials suspect they had either contracted the virus while in town or when the ship switched crew in the past few weeks.
Ya think? We know this virus can be asymptomatic for up to 2 or more weeks, the number of people that can be infected in that time is enormous.
Japanese officials are investigating an outbreak of the coronavirus among crew members of a cruise ship in Nagasaki, which has puzzled authorities because the southern port city has a relatively low number of infections and the vessel has been docked for almost three months.
What is so puzzling? One person with corona boards the ship and it is the perfect environment for mass infection.
I know somebody like that. I won’t use a real name without permission, but it rhymes with Sweedenn.
I’m half convinced that the Swedes will make it work, out of national pride.
I’ve been writing in comments that, while the Swedish strategy seems loony, it hasn’t been done without thought. The problem is trying to figure out what those thoughts are, with reasonable precision. My guesses continue to evolve. Here are where they stand at the moment:
–Preventing an overload of the medical system is a priority. ICU load is followed carefully. So far, they have been easily managed, even in Stockholm where the virus has hit the hardest.
–Health officials believe that we are all, or mostly all going to get the virus eventually, so strict prevention is not necessary if infections occur at a manageable rate.
–Officials believe that preventing infection in young children is not a priority, because serious outcomes are very uncommon. It probably helps that the Swedes (I am told) tend not to have grandparents living with grandchildren.
–Swedes have enough faith in their government to, largely, do as the government requests in reaction to the virus. The guidelines issued by officials are mandatory, but there is no penalty. Many Swedes are following them. This is very Swedish. The implication is that, should stricter controls be necessary for certain periods or in certain locations, the population will respond.
–Officials believe that less restrictive controls will be tolerable for longer periods, making it less likely that pressure will build to drop restrictions, a result that is likely to lead to a strong rebound in infections.
–Overall, the Swedish population is healthier than that of most nations, so fewer of the infected are likely to develop serious symptoms.
–Officials seem to accept a model indicating that the number of people in Stockholm who have contracted the disease will reach nearly 30% by May 1, a level which the officials would find very encouraging. It would mean that there has been substantial progress toward the endpoint near 100% without having suffered an unmanageable outbreak. If the real figure is much lower, the Swedish plan hasn’t faced a real test
yet.
None of the above eliminates the possibility of a blow-up, but I think it is a picture of an attempt to “manage” contagion in a population that appears amenable to the attempt.
I have a few more thoughts developing, but must attend to some offline matters.