It’s Election Day in Georgia. After weeks of early voting, Georgians will be heading to the polls to choose two senators, determining which party controls the Senate and how effective the Biden administration will be able to be legislatively.
This is why polling seems to always undercount Republican voters by a small percentage
The voters who unexpectedly turned out for President Trump on election day existed for the entirety of his term, even if survey researchers never got ahold of them. One explanation that analysts are converging on is the idea that, as Sean Trende argues, what links these voters together is “low social trust” and that this variable can divide otherwise demographically similar groups like non-college educated whites. This kind of voter isn’t lying to pollsters as much as they are hanging up on them. And because those voters are already extremely difficult to find and talk to, when pollsters weight their samples based on the ones they do reach, they will still be wrong.:
Prediction time: For the Nov GE, I had developed a model using public polling internals and top line and averaging them. I got a lot of the margins wrong in the battleground states because…well… a lot of the polls were trash. One state where my model did work, however, was Georgia. I had Biden winning by 0.49%. He won by a little less than a quarter point. In general, public polling tended to be more accurate in states where the metro areas are a dominant share of the total electorate (e.g., MN, GA, VA, AZ, OR, WA and other blue states).
Here, the key is whether the Dems have won the EV by more than Biden did. Biden won the EV by 6 points and lost the E-Day vote by 22. EV was 80% of the total vote. E-Day was 20%. If the two Dems have won it by double digits as analysts like Nate Cohn think, then it means the GOP has underperformed Trump in the EV and need to outperform him on e-day in both turnout and margins. I think that’s a tall order and it’s why the two states are Lean D going into e-day.
However, if the Dems have only performed about as well as Biden in the EV, the edge shifts to the GOP if they can drive turnout/margins.
Utilizing public polling and analysts forecasts, I think the Ds have won the EV by 11 to 14 points. If that’s the case, the GOP needs to win the E-day vote by over 30 to have a chance. I think the e-day vote will be 22% of the total and the total vote will be in the 4.0 - 4.1 million range. Based on this, I think Ossoff wins by 1.6% and Warnock by 2%. Public polling and forecasts see the Dems winning by more, but there is a speculative aspect to all of this so I’m hedging. I could see the Dems outperforming and there’s probably as good a chance of that as the GOP winning e-day by 40 points. So, we’ll see.
I know that most people expect the R’s to outvote the Dems on Election Day. It’s Conventional Wisdom.
I cannot imagine a scenario in which Abrams and her Team have not prepared for this…
Leave it all On the Field.
Is there anyone who is monitoring polling places for turn out numbers? I have seen no pictures of lines or empty polling places.
MSMBC reporting very light turnout
Apparently, he was trying to go to Scotland but they said no.
ETA: This was also in the linked article.
We’re going to find out how many Georgians are foolish enough to vote against a $2000 check./s
I watched some of the trump event last night including a moment when he brought up the $2000 checks. He seemed to think it would be an applause line, but nope, crickets. Go figure.
his time, the lawsuit was filed by Trump in his capacity as candidate last week against Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, his newest archenemies. The lawsuit sought to de-certify the election results in Georgia and is rife with conspiracy theories and just plain bad lawyering. Perhaps that’s why Trump’s lawyers objected to a livestream or phone line for public access to the court proceedings.
Really? The Trump campaign has raked in 200 million dollars and the lawyer they hired to represent them is this guy?
That’s MSNBC
You do realize that Biden won by only 0.3%. That’s having many Georgia Republicans voting against Trump and for Biden because Trump is such an embarrassment. They did vote for Republicans downticket. And you actually believe we will win by those margins without the Trump factor? You’re dreaming if you really believe what you wrote. It’s possible we can win one seat by a very narrow margin. Winning both seats by the margins you quote will not happen.
Hilbert’s sidewalk doesn’t go all the way to his front porch.
Fairly confident this is going to be a route, with clear wins of 3-5% by both republicans.
Both Ossoff and Warnock went in with 1-2% leads in the polls, once we take out the MAGA discount, it’s done and dusted.
Just go look at what the analysts and public polls are saying. My projection is more conservative than most here. Dems are favored if one assumes that they’ve won the EV by a bigger margin than Biden did. If they didn’t, then the pendulum shifts to the GOP. We’ll all find out soon enough.
Two interesting headlines. NBC: Latinos shatter early turnout. Atlanta JC: Fewer lines. Lower turnout.
My NY resolution to spend less time on politics. Broken, already.
“MAGA discount”
Trump is not on the ballot.
