So, what have we gained and lost here?
Lost:
Iran pulls out of JCPOA, increasing the nuclear threat in the region.
We’re kicked out of Iraq in humiliating fashion, degrading our ability to fight ISIS.
We’re now at risk of repercussions at Iran’s choice of time and place, possibly on US soil.
Iran’s use of militias, terror squads, etc., will continue unabated, and, if anything, will become even more active.
Our allies are letting us know with their deafening silence, they are not with us. So another wedge thrown in.
Other second and third order consequences, perhaps not yet forseen.
Gained:
We killed a real bad guy, perhaps uniquely talented and capable within Iran’s military.
I don’t believe there was a significant “imminent” threat involved, so until the Administration makes clear what exactly that threat was, I don’t believe them and won’t include that here.
On balance, I think it was a stupid decision, though I’m happy to revisit that conclusion as circumstances dictate. But knowing this Administration, things usually peak for them about an hour after a major action, then dissipates rapidly as the truth eventually outs.
Iran has a lot of cards to play. The only people who didn’t know that are Trump, Pence, Pompeo, and Esper.