LAKE ARTHUR, La. (AP) — Hurricane Laura pounded the Gulf Coast for hours with ferocious wind, torrential rains and rising seawater as it roared ashore over southwestern Louisiana near the Texas border early Thursday, threatening the lives of people who didn’t evacuate.
This is one of those things where there’s no right answer. I’m watching the Weather Channel this morning when one of the on-site meteorologists said the storm surge didn’t quite match up to the predictions.
Now, I don’t know what it turned out to be, but the catastrophic prediction of up to 20 feet caused a lot of stress and angst.
I hope it wasn’t 20 feet. Trust me on this. But if they really over-forecast the storm surge or over-dramatized it, what’s the chance that the NWS will take it on the chin for the inaccuracy like the CDC has taken it?
Again, I don’t know what actually came ashore or how far inland it went, but I’m seeing people standing on the streets of Alexandria, LA, where the storm came ashore and no one is standing in even inches of water.
The winds, however, are quite another story.
“planned to weather the storm in everything from elevated homes to recreational vehicles”
You have to be kidding me? At least tell me they masked up and socially distanced then. They wouldn’t want to appear suicidal or anything.
I am normally unhappy with the storm porn and over amping of the threats. But this one was justified.
Reality shock wave strikes Louisiana. Dolt 45 alternate versions to follow shortly explaining why FEMA will help, just as soon as the damn fool is reelected. At least they didn’t have to watch Pence.
It’ll take a day or so to fully assess. I do know that one moored casino broke free and slammed into an immoveable object and they’re not able to determine injuries that resulted yet.
Ocean temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is currently anywhere from 86 to 88 degrees so any storm crossing is going to intensify quickly, as in a matter of hours. If anything they under predicted. They had been predicting a cat 3 storm until it wasn’t. I knew that would happen based on earlier trends and ocean temperature. Cat. 5 hurricanes used to be a rare event. No more. It’s time for people to permanently relocate inland or face year after year of unending devastation and misery.
Just for clarification: Alexandria was in the storm’s path, but it’s about 4 hours drive north of New Orleans. Definitely not shore. They were forecast to get tropical-storm wind/rain and power outages, IIRC. If the networks are showing Alex as an example of storm effects, that could be because they can’t get much closer. (That’s where my mother-in-law lives when she’s not evacuated from the state because of pandemic; we also have relatives in Houma, whom I hope we will hear from.)
But yeah, storm threats are a lot like pandemic precautions. If you overpredict and everyone comes through safe, there’s some kind of general complaint, like it would have been better somehow if dozens or hundreds of people had died.
Weather Channel reporting first fatality:
14 year old girl was killed when a tree fell on her house.
FFS, Alexandria is 100 miles inland, and none of NHC’s storm surge warnings went further than 30 miles inland.
Thank you for the failing grade in Geography.
I’m glad it was evidently not the worst case but it still sounds bad. In my own town, 100 miles inland, we had a tropical storm remnant a couple weeks ago and then about two days later, with the ground still soaked, a regular but intense thunderstorm that dumped six inches of rain on us in about 45 minutes. I didn’t realize how bad it was and tried to go shopping but a little creek had overflowed 40 feet out of its banks and I was stopped by a clot of emergency vehicles and a water rescue team because some fool had driven into it. The water in my basement drowned the pilot light in my hot water heater, something that hadn’t happened before in 15 years, and a neighbor down the way said he had three feet of water in his. This is far worse, so seriously, hopes for good outcomes.
I understand that Sharpie sales have gone through the roof in the DC area.
Where do you see evidence for not the worst case? They forecast it pretty accurately: cat 4 when it hits shore, diminishing to cat 2 where it is right now, and they got the track right to within 50 miles. The storm surge effects are currently unknown, because there’s no one in those areas to report. The flooding effects are unknown because they’re just beginning, and will peak in some days.
A huge storm like that is a dynamic thing with many possible outcomes. The tools we have now can make a variety of predictions all of which are possible, but they’re not capable AFAIK of being certain which one is correct. There’s no blame in saying what the range of possibilities are. It’s the only responsible thing to do. If it’s not as bad as the worst prediction, then go home and be glad, is what I think. But human nature is what it is. I’ve been to the memorial in the Keys for the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. Nearly 500 people died in the 20-foot storm surge. Twenty feet of water and nowhere to go. Hurricanes are nothing to disparage if you’re near the coast.
Both governors say the storm surge appears to have been not as bad as they feared.
All I know is what I read. Best evidence I have, since it’s a sunny morning here, 1,500 or so miles away.
“Laura” passed over my house last Saturday, (central PR) winds were nowhere near hurricane strength at that time, but she was clearly an organized and dedicated force even then, downed large branches and trees. I continue watching the storms after they pass PR and this was accurately forecast all the way - though that does not prevent local news hype. For people in coastal areas, they need to start getting prepared for more. The serious season is just getting started.
I watch them from the coast of Africa to wherever they’re headed on the old NOAA site at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ because I have never seen BS from this team, they are dedicated and apolitical unlike just about everything else .gov-related on the mainland (for now).
Don’t forget that the evil pumpkin just cut a large chunk of emergency prep funds from DHS/FEMA.
Good luck to you for the rest of the season.
Lake Charles mayor is on the Weather Channel at this writing. Says the water damage is not the deal, it was not as bad as expected, but the wind damage exceeds Rita.
From what I can find, the maximum storm surge was 9 feet.
Does anyone have tide charts for the area? All the storm surge predictions were for surge and high tide coinciding. If they got surge at low tide, that would make up much of the difference.