Hope no firewall.
Last two paragraphs:
Each side is planning for a disengagement that limits the other superpower’s day-to-day influence, reduces its long-term threat and mitigates the risk of economic sabotage. This involves an exceptionally complex set of calculations, because the two superpowers are so intertwined. In technology, most electronic devices in America are assembled in China, and, reciprocally, Chinese tech firms rely on foreign suppliers for over 55% of their high-end inputs into robotics, 65% of those into cloud computing and 90% of those into semiconductors. It would take 10-15 years for China to become self-sufficient in computer chips and for America to shift suppliers (see Technology Quarterly). Likewise in high finance, which could serve as a vehicle for sanctions. The yuan accounts for just 2% of international payments and Chinese banks hold over $1trn in dollar assets. Again, shifting trade partners to the yuan and winding down the banks’ dollar exposure will take at least a decade, probably longer. And when it comes to research, China still trains its best talent and finds its best ideas in America’s world-beating universities—at the moment there are 370,000 mainland students on campuses in the United States.
Were the superpower rivalry to spiral out of control, the costs would be vast. To build a duplicate tech hardware supply-chain would take $2trn or so, 6% of the superpowers’ combined gdp. Climate change, a great challenge which could provide a common purpose, would be even harder to cope with. Also at stake is the system of alliances that is a pillar of America’s strength. Some 65 countries and territories rely on China as their largest supplier of imports and, asked to choose between the superpowers, not all of them would opt for Uncle Sam—especially if it continues to pursue today’s policy of America First. Most precious of all are the principles that really made America great: global rules, open markets, free speech, respect for allies and due process. In the 2000s people used to ask how much China might become like America. In the 2020s the bigger question is whether a full superpower split might make America more like China.