This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1448947
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1448947
No, what sanctions (and continuing corruption among oligarch/military Putinists) have weakened is Russia’s capacity to produce and transport the means of modern war; that is what will bring the Putin regime down; cf https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/
NB: `
`War of this type is a production/acquisition battle between the sides. No one can talk coherently about the future trends in the war unless they integrate that into their thinking. https://t.co/zeN8cIOHAt
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) February 15, 2023
16 Likes
“It’s possible the reality is worse than the data suggests”
Not just “possible” but probable.
12 Likes
Putin’s grip on power is a function of being the leader of a dictatorship and not being bound by traditional political gravity.
3 Likes
Worth mentioning, after pretty deep study of Russian history and culture, that Russian self regard is wrapped up in their ability to suffer. It is what they pride themselves on most. So the economic suffering can hit hard and the people will continue like nothing has happened. Only prolonged starvation would lead to a revolution against the state, and there are no philosophies of government in the modern era worth fighting for - or not already proven inadequate to the Russian people anyway.
What happens here is that all the King’s horses and all the King’s men won’t have the money or the heart to put the ancestral fantasy of the Grand Rus together again. At some point in our human developmental history we have to get bored with this crap. One man takes all the power and money and inflicts murder on his fellow until he is stopped? Sounds like a fucking monkey to me.
7 Likes
Nations bordering and near Russia have a stake in Ukraine’s struggle…also…The GOP cannot be allowed to harm the rebuilding process of NATO and the European Union.
11 Likes
It is quite clear that if Putin wins the Ukraine the Baltic States and even Poland are next in the restoration of “historic Russia”.
6 Likes
Prigozhin is whining about the lack of artillery shells. Notwithstanding the predicted anniversary missile attack, the Russians have barely been firing any for weeks. Two-thirds of their operational prewar main battle tanks have been verifiably destroyed, captured, or otherwise put out of service.
Russia’s capacity to wage this shitty war is more depleted than not. It’s not going to end well for them.
17 Likes
In the Vietnam War Era, the “Domino Theory” was often invoked as the justification for America’s involvement.
How ironic it is that here, we have a real issue in the U.S. and Europe right now in the 21st Century
8 Likes
Russia is being bled dry by this war. The fact that it’s not out of blood yet doesn’t mean it can continue what it’s doing much longer. It’s simply a matter of time, and by time, I mean probably a few more months before they can no longer even maintain a presence in Ukraine. Once that happens, Russia will have been so weakened that they probably won’t have anything left apart form nuclear bombs, which they probably won’t even have the resources to maintain very well.
Russia is effectively over as a world power. They are now just a rouge state with only slightly more international influence than Iran.
13 Likes
The damage caused by/associated with Donald Trump continues to amaze. Imagine the world without the 2015 Escalator Ride.
The very strength of our nation (and the cooperative sectors of nations) have been tested more than we thought possible.
14 Likes
I’m revolted by the reality that a handful of delusional strongmen can fuck up the world so hard
10 Likes
The couple of paragraphs immediately preceding that quote seem to undercut a lot of the article. I think he’s right that the sanctions weren’t the “quick fix” that some economists were predicting, but it’s clear that the sustained sanctions are going to have a profound effect in the long term. Provided we keep the pressure on, it is breaking their capacity to continue waging this war for a second year, as the bit just above what you quoted noted.
5 Likes
That growing incapacity will matter of course but, if this war has exposed nothing else, it is how Russia’s capacity to sustain just about anything that matters had been hollowed out by the sanctioned corruption and looting under Putin even before this phase of the war started.
8 Likes
Party like it’s 1989!
7 Likes
Eventually I believe NATO will have to get involved. It’s clear Putin will never give up. Unless of course he gets defenestrated by another Russian dictator wannabe
The war will end on a timescale set by the level of armament of Ukraine by the West. Also, how it ends must not be up for negotiation: Russia entirely, and extremely decisively, kicked out of Ukraine – which by definition includes Crimea.
Dragging out the war because of measly supply of armaments by the West would be wrong on multiple levels, including immoral. Dragging out the war conceivably could put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate territory. This would be both a mistake and cowardly on the part of the West. Germany has to be dragged every inch of the way to do the right thing; Biden must continue to lead. Far more and heavier weaponry for Ukraine now now now. And sanctions as implemented are, while not entirely ineffective, largely a joke.
2 Likes
Another question the article doesn’t address is how much of putin’s current account surplus is usable. Many attempts to convert that paper money into hard spending will lead to confiscation.
1 Like
The ability of Russia to manufacture and maintain armaments, vehicles, systems has been greatly damaged by the sanctions. Although the information from the Donbas front is murky, what I think can be said is that Russia has likely thrown as many or more troops into their current winter offensive than they did back in the summer of '22 and the battle lines have barely moved. In addition, they were unable to hold the northern half of Kherson. I think that speaks to both improved UKR supplies of munitions and insufficient munitions on the Russian side. Russia wins battles with overwhelming, carpet bombing force and numbers of troops. They’re throwing the bodies in there but UKR is picking off so many of them that advances are very modest at best.
As for Putin, his grip on power is bigger than one war. The entire Russian state would collapse were he not there because the democratic institutions have been decimated and the military/nat sec complex has been balkanized, with the ministry of defense doing battle with warlord types with the spy agencies being the invisible hand that keeps things together. Russia has vastly improved its standard of living for the retired class and the educated classes in the major cities under Putin. He’s emptying his treasury to keep those folks happy. Without him, that whole system collapses into factionalism. Ideologically, there is a crystallized majority in support of him and a successor won’t inherit that level of support. Any immediate successor would likely be targeted and killed by even harder right nationalist factions.
I do believe Putin could survive a defeat and retreat from Ukraine. The Russian state needs him to survive.
2 Likes
Putin has accelerated the move to renewables by the West - the sooner we can remove ourselves from dictators including SA as well as Russia, the better. Better for the planet, better for democracy worldwide and better from Ukraine.
However, China and Modi in India may want to be spoilers for this and keep Russia in the game to keep the US, Nato and the EU busy. Modi has attacked the BBC for reporting on his role in the sectarian riots in 2006 by confiscating their reporters telephones, next step will be jailing them for telling the truth of his prejudices and violence. They may keep arming Russia to keep the blood bath going because it will benefit them in the long run.