After the Iowa caucus disaster, each candidate came to the New Hampshire debate with something to prove.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1290074
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1290074
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This was the first debate I actually watched since the first one. Buttigieg and Steyer were a lot more annoying and substance-less than I remembered. Biden was repeatedly and semi-coherently shouting “I did that! It was me!” If I was someone who for some reason didn’t like Bernie or Warren, I’d go with Klobuchar.
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My husband and I both thought Klobuchar was a stand out tonight. She’s quick, knows how to incorporate humor and comes off as a happy warrior. Also, she’s unlikely to inspire the kind of backlash some of the others might. And not a septugenarian.
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Finished watching the debate. Quick thoughts:
Joe Biden - Had his best debate performance, particularly in the first 90 minutes. Was forceful, emphatic, feisty and was able to imprint his personality on substantive points ranging from health care to guns to the courts to foreign policy. He did what he needed to do to get the Culinary Union endorsement in NV and to keep POC voters with him. He’ll survive the early predictions of his demise or a loss in NH. This was an important moment for him in the big scheme of this campaign. I don’t think it will get him a win in NH, but I think it will put him in good stead in NV and SC and among POC voters in general.
Bernie Sanders - Thought he was playing defense tonight on health care. Didn’t press the attack on Pete very well. Got some stuff thrown in his face on single payer, guns and the gospel of free s**t in general. Had some solid moments on impeachment/Trumpism. Not a great performance but probably got bailed out by Klobuchar.
Amy Klobuchar - As much as I’ve grown annoyed with Klobchar’s dime story Hillary knock off routine, she brought her best performance today. She hit Buttigieg and Bernie a lot and stole Warren’s message (while Warren tried to steal Kamala Harris’ message…bizarre I know). Her closing was almost like a Liz Warren speech delivered with a hint of emotion you don’t usually hear from her. That performance will get her noticed more and I think she will get into the low double digits in NH (she’s at 8%. I think she’ll finish at 11%-14%). That will probably be enough to enable Bernie to win NH because there are only so many ways one can split the center left pie before Bernie’s floor > than each individual candidate’s ceiling. For Biden to take full control of this race, Amy has to drop out. She’s clearly not going to do that here, but her path from this point forward is pretty much nonexistent.
Elizabeth Warren - Wordy, flat for the first hour. Started finding a groove hitting Buttigieg after he had his usual stumble on race questions, but then it was just odd to watch Kamala Harris’ words come out of her mouth. She’s a good student as well as professor it would seem! I did like her embrace of incrementalism on trade and health care. It’s coming too late in this process but I applaud her for that. She refused to take on Bernie and I think that will ultimately doom her campaign.
Pete Buttigieg - Pete took a lot of shots from Amy, Bernie, Liz and one from Biden (though Biden was wise to pull back from hitting him too hard. Better to save up the good stuff for South Carolina). I think Pete had a pretty rough night, though I can tell the media wants to keep pumping him up. Good answer on the Hunter Biden question (why didn’t that come to Joe? Huh?). Good response to Bernie trying to shame him for raising money from rich folks (duh…Trump just raised $25 million today), but on race, his view on Washington, his theory of politics and getting things done, his experience, he got dinged a lot by Amy in particular.
Tom Steyer - Was kissing Bernie’s ass the whole night. Bernie has outsourced his SC campaign to Steyer. Bernie might not even get delegates there, but Steyer is just trying to hold Biden’s delegate number down. Pretty disgraceful performance and Amy did hit him pretty good on how politics gets done in DC.
Yang - Why? He’s a fraud, a con artist and a nihilist. Tom Perez sucks.
How will this impact the race?
I don’t think Bernie will grow his vote. He wasn’t impressive. But his base will be with him. I think Biden should be able to move up to #3. More people will abandon Warren for Amy. Amy could get to 4th place. Pete got hit a lot and might stall out at around 18%. I suspect Bernie will win the race with somewhere between 24%-28% of the vote. There will probably be a battle for second between Biden/Pete. Amy/Warren will battle for 4th.
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(White) people still have not understood the power of the POC vote in the Democratic South.
In the South, FL, GA, SC etc…
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Pete’s got a shot at that, right? /s
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As the POC vote helps him, going forward, Joe might get a tad more comfortable.
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I have to disagree that pete did a good job re funding his campaign. His line – “I am the only one on the stage that isn’t a millionaire or a billionaire.” is beyond annoying. First . he is 37 years old. Second. Except for Steyer, none of the other candidates are self funding their campaigns. It is a cheap red herring. Third, it is a typical Republican talking point to say that they can’t be true progressives because they have wealth.
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I have to agree that I thought Klobuchar was the most likely on that stage to beat DT. She’s a woman. That voting demographic (and candidate success) has increased in the last few elections. She’s neither too young nor too old. And, she has measurable experience and success in Washington; often working across the isle. (Which would be good considering the repair job the next president is going to have to do!;).
My concern with her has always been as to whether or not she could defend herself from the inevitable attacks she’ll get from DT. Then tonight I remembered a story about how some of her staff said she could be very difficult and demanding to work for. Hmmm… then (like Pelosi) she probably has a really smart, strong side you DON’T want to mess with!
Plus, I was very moved by the humanity of her closing remarks. Given the president’s unhinged attacks of “bullshit” directly following the Prayer Breakfast recently, this nation could use a candidate with some obvious sensibility for “good old-fashioned American values” like love, compassion, and empathy.
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Has not put any effort into building minority support. She has no chance in the primary.
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Then she should. I haven’t checked, but I wouldn’t be surprised if in all those bills she’s helped to pass there weren’t a bunch of things that minority communities have benefited from.
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You can’t build that support overnight. It doesn’t just happen. She’s run a bad campaign and is aggressively playing out the string because she has nothing to lose. Her campaign will effectively be over after NH, but she’ll probably stay through the MN primary on March 3rd.
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Warren tried to be Kamala. Amy tried to be Warren. Steyer tried to be Tulsi. Yang pretends to be a wonk. Pete wants to be Obama. The only authentic candidates up there were Biden and Bernie and one one of them levels with the people on matters of policy: Biden.
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Can’t agree with that. Authenticity is in the eye of the beholder. For me those two you mentioned are not authentic, but I won’t go out and call them that cuz that’s subjective.
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I was simply stating my opinion about who I thought would make a good democratic candidate to run against Trump. I have no statistical predictions or opinions about campaigns. Also, she is in a minority. We’ve never had a woman president and she’s the only other female candidate on that stage.
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True, but she had a limited budget. Part of the reason why Kamala had to drop out is that she’s really building infrastructure in many states (in other words, she’s really running to be president, not vp or some cabinet positions, which I think is what Klobuchar is doing), especially the southern ones, and that cost a lot.
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I think the Trump/Biden or Trump/Sanders shows have already been written (including any info gathered from foreign intelligence). You know he’s already got them in the closet writing the Trump/Buttigieg, Trump/Warren scripts. Not so sure he’s got a lot on the Trump/Klobuchar yet. Anyway, my fantasy first choice is already out of the race:-(
But then, with what’s been happening in Washington I’m questioning the writers of “My Reality” these days. Wish they could get Mel Brooks to take over.
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Too many Democrats are under the illusion that there are multiple choices out there for nominee. It’s a binary choice between Biden and Bernie. No one else will be the Democratic nominee.
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I think team ttump’s main strategy against Klobuchar isn’t to attack her as a socialist or corrupt as he did with Sanders and Biden. They’re more likely to sow division within Dem party and suppress Dem turnout by invoking her record on minority issues. In other words, they’ll play “woke”.
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Since both are so disappointing for many people, can you blame people for the illusion? It’s great to dream these days since the reality is horrible. And we only have the luxury of dreaming during the primary.
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