How Do They Get To 270? Biden Has Options, Trump’s Path Is Narrower | Talking Points Memo

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden each has a path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House. Biden’s is appreciably wider.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at
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This is like the weekend before the most binary Christmas ever. It is either going to everything you asked for on Santa’s list or you got nothing and on top of that your dog died.


To clarify, Biden has multiple legitimate avenues.

Fat Nixon will have to cheat, intimidate, and rely on GOPSCOTUS.


I hope our Election Day turnout is massive.


Let’s take a moment to consider that, regardless of the Electoral College result, Biden is likely to carry the popular vote by at least 5-10 million, if not more. We really need to abolish the Electoral College. The Electoral College was put in place to preserve the power of the slave states and, surprise, it’s fucking our democracy now.


Well, everything for me would include about 10 net Senate seats. But I’ll be happy with a net 4.

IMO, this is a poorly worded analysis. Its soft peddling Biden’s chances (Regarding PA “Biden has had a slight advantage in most polls”…He has held a steady 5-6 point lead for a long, long time ). And Nevada and Minnesota are not in play. Never have been.

There are several key points I am looking at. On the strategtic level, Trump barely won in 2016, and is surrendering states this time around. Michigan and Wisconsin are gone. Arizona is gone. I personally believe rather strongly that PA is gone (Dems have over million more ballots already cast. ) . Meanwhile he is behind in IA, NC and FL, though all are going to be close. Georgia is a flip of the coin, and always has been.

That’s 4 states and 57 EVs that have flipped. And nowhere is Trump even close to flipping a state that went Blue in 2016, so he has no way to make up those losses. And he is behind and struggling in over 100 EVs worth of states (FL, GA, NC, IA and TX).

None of that points to a possible path to victory. It points to attempts to merely minimize massive bleeding.

Now, all that being said…Florida is going to be extremely close. It’s turning on election day turnout and how big a defection rate we see among Rs and NPAs that voted for Trump in 2016.


Agreed… BUT PA is tops on Trump’s steal list. He is counting on HIS SCOTUS to give him PA. He already has several Republican counties saying they will count NO mail-ins until Wednesday, and has ‘his judges’ teed up to stop the counting at 00:00:01 on November 4 if he is ahead, which is a definite possibility


Biden’s path is by people voting and counting every vote.

Trump’s path is through voter suppression and challenging tens or hundreds of thousands of what should be legitimate ballots.

Both are already happening.


It is inconievable the this monster might be re-elected, but I said pretty much the same thing in 2016. I’m not holding my breath, but it’s going to be a nail-biter at least until Tuesday evening. I am holding out hope that there are more decent people voting than MAGAts. We’ll see.


Not sure this is the best time to be threatening ‘coming after you’. James does not use those words, so this is a RawStory headline. I would have loved it about 8-9 months ago. And I will love it right after the election.



Because you’re up on all this voting stuff, does the fact the CA, HI, and AK have early voting make a difference? I remember back in the day thinking that those states that were in MT or PT zones always seemed to be at a disadvantage.
And who for fucks sake can’t FL get their voting shit together, why are we always waiting on them?


9,669,246 votes already cast in Texas means Donnie Two Scoops is gonna lose Texas. He will not improve on his 4,685,047 votes from 2016, certainly not by enough to overcome the 2020 turnout.

ETA: Actually, it’s gonna be north of 9.7 million early votes, since the Texas SOS hasn’t included yesterday’s votes from Bexar County (San Antonio).


It’s hard for me to imagine that this is good for Trump:


It’s the sheer bravery of these Poor Boys, that causes me to well up. That they would bomb a polling place, regardless of who might be in there, is inspirational. The care they take for their fellow Poor Boys, to make sure none of them are exposed to any nasty physical fallout, will ensure they stand well back or are safely in their tactical bunker (Whack Shack). Sniping, bombing, drive-bys, runovers, mass-murder…they are always thinking of others.


“Florida is going to be extremely close”
There is a ballot initiative in Florida to legalize recreational Marijuana that requires 60% approval. If it passes, Biden wins.


Biden’s up by two in Texas according to a Public Policy poll this morning.

:pray: :pray: :pray:


I cannot wait until the electoral college dies, and we can determine the office of POTUS by the legitimate, collective will of the American people.


KY is going to re-elect America’s very own Emperor Palpatine. A guy who earned, and could not shake, the well established moniker of Moscow Mitch. SMH

The mantra of this whole election season should have been…You don’t have to live in KY to vote against Moscow Mitch. Go vote, vote D, and get yourselves a D Senator.


If Dems take the Senate, Moscow Mitch will lose everything he holds dear.

No more judges for you!
Judgement is now upon you!!!


It’s how he got his black hands