This behind the scenes account of the pivotal 2020 Iowa caucus is adapted from one chapter of the new book The Truce: Progressives, Centrists and the Future of the Democratic Party, by Hunter Walker and Luppe B. Luppen. The book is based on over two years of reporting and interviews with key figures at every level of progressive politics to bring you a definitive history of a half-decade of upheaval in the Democratic Party along with unparalleled insights into what’s coming next for Joe Biden and the left. The Truce is available for pre-order now and will be released on January 23, 2024.
Great article. Bernie was robbed in Iowa, twice. He was too polite to say so in public. But the narrative was critical, everybody had to see him as a candidate who could win the Presidency.
The fiasco does seem to be the straw that broke the camel’s back for the Democratic Party regarding the Iowa Caucus. The DNC has pushed Iowa (and New Hampshire) back in line (though NH seems to be intent on defying that since they wrote it into state law that they have to be the first primary). But it does bring states with more diverse populations to the fore and while it won’t matter much for 2024 with Biden running practically unopposed, we’ll have to see what the states do in 2028 when the primary is liable to be more open (depending on how popular Kamala Harris is to be the nominee).
Both New Hampshire and Iowa have benefited greatly from their nominating contests being the first. For example it is my understanding that it is the only reason we put corn ethanol in our gas as it may take more energy to make then is saved.
The problem for Democrats is that neither state is representative of the Democratic base. However, there is risk in saying that as New Hampshire that once never voted for Democrats has the last 5 presidential elections and Iowa that used to vote for Democrats seems to now be solidly Republican.
But the point is neither state is truly reflective of the nation and so their having an oversized influence on who is president should be ended.
One other thing, something I read about the Republican debate last night, that I did not watch, pretty much sums up what appears to have happened:
Is Haley downshifting into a bid to be Trump’s vice-presidential nominee? Or was she just having a low-energy night? It’s impossible to say. But it can be said, with some certainty, that if she continues to implicitly tell Republican voters that there’s nothing dangerous about nominating Trump, they will probably listen to her.
They are. In the 2016 Dem primary my state WA was still a caucus state. I knew my very liberal small town was going to have a caucus where Bernie supporters would just shout down anyone else, so I didn’t bother going. And sure enough, Bernie took the state over Hillary in the caucus by a whopping 73% to 27%.
For the 2020 Dem primary, WA had moved to a conventional balloted primary. Biden beat Bernie by a slim margin of 38% to 37% with Warren and Bloomberg in the single digits. Warren might have pulled a few votes from Bernie, but that 37% was a truer reflection of his support in the state, which wasn’t reflected in the earlier caucus system where he just had the most enthusiastic and fired-up supporters.
Thank goodness this mess ended their monopoly on the primary start. The winners never really seem to be the final victor and the caucus problem in Iowa just made things worse.
This was like ignoring the Electoral College in favor of the popular vote.
No matter how much you disdain those rules – no matter if you are right …the rules are the rules until they are changed. If you refuse to deal with the actual rules you will rob yourself.
The exception is if you are aiming to be a conscientious objector or engage in civil disobedience. In which case, defying/ignoring the rules is the point and that can be instructive/inspiring if you are trying to expose how corrupt or broken the rules are.
But yes, if your goal is to win, you have to try to find a way to win within the scope of the rules, as given.
The AP never called the race due to issues with the number. NYT did the same. The outcome was unclear, but Pete was rewarded one more delegate. As this article notes, that delegate went to Bernie. Technically, delegate-wise it was a tie. Other than that, who knows?
Very well written. I appreciate your insight into the workings - and failings - of the political machinery. A reminder of the fumbling start and how it embodied the cry of “Dems in disarray!” that is still trotted out for everything today, including Republican failures.
In Washington, after the 2016 caucus where Bernie won 72/37 with about 250,000 participants and the 2016 democratic primary (which didn’t count) with over 600,000 votes which Hillary won, I know I wrote to the party and demanded that the more democratic mechanism be used in future primaries. I’m but one voter, but the caucus system was just bloody awful.
True – but like the fictional “West Wing”, primary math is ALL about the narrative. Even a 2nd place finish in Iowa or New Hampshire against the expected winner shifts things… and until Super Tuesday, the media is all about the scrappy underdog narrative. Bernie had that in 2016 with the Clinton juggernaut… 2020? Not so much.
The 2020 Iowa caucus was not pivotal. The implementation of it was so disastrously flawed that the results didn’t come out for weeks. It had no impact on the voters outside of the state.
This article is a bald attempt to whitewash the affair in a vain attempt to maintain the once-upon-a-time prestige of the caucus. It doesn’t deserve this much column space. What should be published in its place is the illegal scheduling of both the Iowa and New Hampshire votes prior to South Carolina, which the DNC chose to go first in 2024.
The dead enders just want something to hang their hats on.
most of the Bros have learned the lessons of 2016
sadly the few that haven’t are the loudest.
Thank you so much! We have tried to do a deeply reported look at the party that goes well beyond the “disarray” caricature. The reality is that some things are quite messy and in other ways they have their stuff very together. We get into this a bit on the pod with Josh that’s out tomorrow!
