ROME (AP) — From the marbled halls of Italy to the wheat fields of Kansas, health authorities are increasingly warning that the question isn’t whether a second wave of coronavirus infections and deaths will hit, but when — and how badly.
The second wave will be worse in the US than we know because Repuglican governors as well as the DC crowd will find ways to mask or suppress the count. But of course that could be said of the first wave too couldn’t it.
NB: State health department tells university COVID-19 modeling team to stop work, limits data access
Good morning TPM readers,
I am proposing a hypothesis that the world is currently ALREADY in the second wave.
French scientists believe their first case was mid-December.
One of my employees traveled to Disney World around December 20, 2019 for a ten day stay and he and his daughter came down with classic COVID-19 symptoms; were tested negative for flu and strep; and the employee had those weird frost-bitten toes as a symptom as well. We can’t get access to anti-body tests for the employee, so we’ll never know.
a second wave of coronavirus infections and deaths will hit
I was looking at the COVID-19 map this morning, and the situation is dire.
While New York is bending the curve, many states are not. Tennessee is on a veritable rocket going straight up. Georgia, Florida, Virginia (thanks, Donald), Texas, and several others are arcing upward already.
How Bad…in the US, I suspect that cases and the resulting deaths to at the minimum double or triple. The current wave will last well into the fall/winter as I don’t see any reason for the pandemic to slow. Little testing, little taking any responsibility for actions that are not just detrimental to yourself but to others so I can’t see why anyone would think things will slow down. All wishful thinking on the altar of $$$$$$$$$$$.
That I believe for no other evidence than yesterday the ambulances going past the house seemed to be non stop for hours. It is 9:37 this morning here in East TN and so far, since I got home at 3AM, the sirens are at least every 1/2 hour. As noted yesterday the MC is on the other side of town at least 7 or 8 miles away so has to be local trips. I wonder if it is a result of Easter services being just about in the right incubation period. That or all the senior HS parties that have occurred over past few weeks.
“How Bad Will The Second Wave Of Coronavirus Be?” __________ First, assume that our response will be no better than how we handled the first attack and then look at every other country’s bounce back. Take the worst example and add 25%.
The only reason Republicans are relaxing restrictions is because, rather than deal with the hard reality, Trump wants to boast about being a great businessman.
His challenge is to obscure the fact that people are dying in droves. His tactic looks to be assembling large crowds of don’t-give-a-shitters.
Since nothing is being handled on a federal level it’s hard to say the 2nd wave will be worse or better in the US (in this case it just doesn’t exist).
So to answer this question, I’ll say the West Coast States (WA, OR, CA) and the NE States (NY, NJ, CT and possibly RI, PA and MA) will have less issues in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th waves provided they have the testing and contact tracing in place (should be, but depends on when wave 2 hits).
I also think (JMHO) that the waves will get less because the methods of dealing will improve. I also think the states will be quicker to go into lockdown knowing that it does work and people can deal with shorter lockdowns.
The other Blue States will depend on lessons learned but, should be better.
The Red States are screwed by stupid leaders. Of course they’ll lie about cases and deaths to keep the numbers low. So they’ll be worse but, cook the books to look better and make Trump look better while killing their people.
However, it’s really a guessing game. So my guess is 2nd wave will be less because the big states/cities will shut down quicker (NY, NJ in particular). I think hope the 3rd and 4th waves will decrease even further as people adapt to wearing face masks and keeping distance and limited social gatherings.
There will always be idiots and it could all totally backfire and people go crazy about masks but, I think most won’t. Same as all the FAA changes after 911
How bad?
Unimaginable…
Pardon my ignorance, but when exactly did the first wave end?
A second wave projected in various models is not particularly newsworthy…imho. A projection is data-based speculation. Waves of pandemic were based on prior experience, of course, from the start. The fact has always remained that we knew this could get a lot worse than we’re seeing now in no small thanks to Mr. Trump and his enablers. For shame…
From the marbled halls of Italy to the wheat fields of Kansas, health authorities are increasingly warning that the question isn’t whether a second wave of coronavirus infections and deaths will hit, but when — and how badly.
I was just talking to an internal medicine doc in Kansas. He is excited that things are loosening up. That means he will soon see his regular patients again instead of relying on tele-medicine. There have been very few cases in his community, and he was surprised and is proud of how well everyone did with social distancing, hand washing etc. It’s time to get back to normal.
I asked him what has changed. I reminded him that hunkering down has kept people apart and safe. Without a vaccine we are still subject to the virus. Very few people have any immunity.
The guy I was talking to is an experienced and highly respected internal medicine doc. I don’t think the people of Kansas have any idea what might happen next. They certainly aren’t going to be told by their local media.
It is ending in New York and New Jersey, it is just getting started across the rest of the country. That is why they are predicting 3000 deaths a day in the very near future.
How Bad Will The Second Wave Of Coronavirus Be?
Cowabunga!
It is subsiding as we speak, in some places.
(I agree, it takes effort to be precise about these things.)
It looks more like one wave repeating itself over and over again in various hot spots. But by reopening too soon in some, it will be carried from one place to another by the MAGA doing their protests and going on vacation without a care in the world.
In some places, where lockdowns (broadly speaking) have succeeded in lowering the number of active cases, the second wave will come, and it may well not be that bad. Everywhere else (e.g. Red US) it’s just a first wave that keeps on building until it runs out of susceptibles.
If standardized plans for safely operating nursing homes, prisons and meatpacking plants are instituted that could go a long way toward mitigating future outbreaks. It’s shocking that this wasn’t done right at the beginning.
How Bad Will The Second Wave Of Coronavirus Be?
Bad enough that my otherwise worthless Republican federal government’s response has been to get ahead of the curve by ordering another 100,000 body bags. I suppose they’ve also ordered a whole bunch more refrigerator trucks for portable morgues, too. Other than that, the only thing the current maladministration is competent at is their monumental incompetence.
< heavy sarcasm on >
Always thinking ahead with the right priorities…
< heavy sarcasm off >