This is Indiana. We are not just talking about a few little burgs. Agriculture is big business in this state. There are communities that depend on it for their livelihoods and their tax bases. Kick in enough doors and run off enough labor and it will cost this state.
Not only that there is the big ugly bill no one likes and the tariffs no one likes. Not everyone will turn on the GOP. But enough might to make a difference. There could be another one of those demographic shifts. It would not be the first time.
Trump (and the right wing media machine) throw all sorts of shit on the wall, and when something sticks they go with that as their message and make sure all Republicans get the script.
You’re right about Trump’s superpower, which he’s had and used to his advantage all his life. He knows how to tell the person in front of him exactly what that person wants to hear, no matter how much bullshit it is.
And he’ll tell the next person the complete opposite, if that’s what Joe Public #2 wants to hear.
And once again, the whole nation swung by six points, so pointing out the dropoff in 18-24 year-olds doesn’t tell us anything special about messaging or ground game or anything else. It just tells you that the vibes were bad for the 6% of voters who swung the election.
Trump didn’t win by massive margins. He did improve on his vote from last time but 2020 Biden still got more votes than 2024 Trump. There is a clear anti-Trump majority in this country, but we weren’t able to keep it together in 2024. This is an entirely solvable problem with the tools we have.
I see a significant dropoff in D voting percentage of 18-24 year olds that isn’t reflected in the age cohorts immediately above them, so the general 6% shift overall can’t be used to wave away the fact that the youngest voters were particularly receptive to Republican messaging.
Those are the voters who came of age during the Great Depression, a/k/a the Biden Malaise. They’re ill-informed and have only rudimentary political instincts. Of course they voted for change. They barely remembered the first trump term.
And if trump was so appealing to The Youngs, how do you explain that 8-point shift in those 50-64? Other than the obvious answer, which is the vibes.
Not sure what relevance the 50-64 cohort has to do with the 18-24 year olds. And I see a small but mixed shift for 50-64 years old in your numbers, not an 8-point shift.
The young men in the 18-24 cohort have definitely latched onto the Trump and Trump-adjacent messaging from assholes like Andrew Tate. “You’re never going to earn decent money, get married, or buy a house, and it’s the fault of the woke mob who let in all the immigrants to fill the housing, and who told girls your age that the are independent and don’t need a man who’s not rich.”
I see it now - both a little movement towards Trump, and a significant retreat from the D candidate .
Gen X lapped up Trump’s bullshit in a big way this last cycle. They must have tried out TikTok and YouTube to try to understand what they’re kids are into, and got sucked inside the Joe Rogan/trad wife/manosphere maelstrom.
Gen X came of age under Ronald Reagan. Our voting pattern got locked in early. (Not mine, of course, I grew up.)
The first-time voters of 2028 will have no significant memories of Barack Obama, but they will be well aware of the current bullshit. And a lot of 2024’s 18-24 y.o. voters will have wised up.
Well right, of course. But doesnt that same section drive for proportionality that is undermined by the hard cap?
Isn’t there disparate impact on urban areas and contemporary record of the times that this was the intent, largely based on hurting immigrant populations? (Basicslly racism)
However, the decade leading up to the 2020 United States census saw Wyoming’s population increase at a lower rate than that of the rest of the United States; as a result, the required House size to implement the Wyoming Rule will increase to 574.
I have sometimes pondered what the Senate would be like if every state was only guaranteed one seat and all the rest were portioned out by population, and whether it would be beneficial to hold elections in Senate districts instead of statewide.
People did not believe Trump would do what he said he would do. It was a kind of mass denial. I have a feeling that if that election were held today, the outcome would be different.
NC went from +14 Bush in 2004 to 50-50 in 2008 because 500k people moved here from up north during that time. We slipped back to just barely on the red side of purple by means of voter suppression and GOPer scouring the boondocks for angry white men who hadn’t voted every election since. Another 500k from Blue states would swamp them.
Assuming we’re still having real elections in 2030, I mean.
