It’s finally here! After months of debates, polls, town halls, bubbles, collapses, and plenty of idle speculation along the way, voters in Iowa will finally pick their favorite Republican candidate today. Who will win? Nobody’s sure — the polling data is way too close to call with Romney looking strong, Ron Paul holding steady, and Rick Santorum coming up fast from behind. And there’s still plenty of room for some of the dark horse candidates like Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich to sneak into the top tier. With so much up in the air, let’s take a look at where some possible scenarios might leave the race heading into New Hampshire.Mitt Romney Wins After failing to gain traction for months, Romney is finally leading polls at exactly the right time in Iowa. He’s essentially tied with Ron Paul, and there’s a fast-rising Rick Santorum right behind them, so a victory will be tough, but if he can pull it off it’s hard to see how he loses the nomination. Even a second or third place finish puts him in a strong position. He’s dominant in New Hampshire already and would enter with a wave of momentum and positive coverage. If one of his rivals could stop him with surprisingly big victories in both South Carolina and Florida, they might be able to keep him from running away with it early. But they will likely have to overcome a rush from the GOP establishment to crown him fast.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=102829