GOP Pollster Laments His Profession Is ‘Finished’ If They’re Wrong About 2020

Frank Lutz, a top pollster for Republicans, asserted on Thursday night that if he and his fellow analysts are wrong yet again about who’ll win the election a la 2016, that blunder could spell doom for his industry.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1340196
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Doom for his industry? PFFT… It’s DOOM for the country.

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Yes, Frankie, your profession - which, I have gathered over a good many years, is being a sycophantic whore for the Republican Party - will be finished, but your bad toupee will live forever!

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It would have been interesting if the story had included Luntz’s current polling prognostications.

I mean the actual internal polling, not the fluffed up ones foisted on the deplorable base.

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Pollsters did basically fine in 2016, and Frank Luntz beclowns himself and demonstrates his comprehensive lack of understanding of his alleged profession to state otherwise.

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538 seems to be pretty good, and I say that because they have made me mad about some of their polling, then turned out to be correct and made me even more mad. So…there’s that.

In the last few cycles with all the new registered voters, cell phones, young people, POC communities that I don’t think get polled, and people lying to pollsters, I don’t see how anyone can get a good read on things. I am not a pollster, I’m sure there are things they do that I am not aware of to get good stats, but I still think it is a near impossible task to get a true good read on what’s happening these days.

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Mr. Lutz, every week hundreds of thousands of people find themselves filing for unemployment. If you’re wrong about the election outcome, you can join them. Unlike you, most of them had jobs that provided an actual service to others.

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Pretty much why most folks are looking at state polls and district level polls and not national polling. A handful got it right in national polls,within the MOE, in 2016 but only 1 had Trump ahead in national polling. 538 is a modeler not an aggregator. The risk of reliance on their modeling was exposed in 2016.

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A .300 hitter got a hit last night. OUTRAGE, STATISTICS CAN NEVER BE TRUSTED AGAIN

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I’m not sure Putin and friends were polled.

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Ah Frank Klutz who gladly aids the Russian Republican Party carrying out the orders of Putin to destroy the United States…

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I don’t think Lutz is very bullish on Trump’s chances right now. This comment is essentially saying, he sees Biden winning the election, but if Trump somehow wins, he is out of business.

He wouldn’t be phrasing this that way if he believed Trump was going to win.

For something a bit lighter on the subject, this is one of the best Twitter threads I have seen in a long, long time:

Clippy is Fivey Fox's father. https://t.co/1QNf8ibreG

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2020

:joy: :joy: :joy:

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Obviously I dropped that statistics class in college like a hot potato. :rofl:
However, some of my finest artwork from that period can be found in that class’s notebook.

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LUNTZ is how you spell his name. Lutz is a figure skating move. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lutz_jump

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His sly way of endorsing Biden?

I have never had a love for lutz.
on another note:
Did anyone catch the moment after the debate when melania walked up to him on the stage. she was wearing a mask and at eye contact I know she said something because I swear I watched trumps lips respond by saying , BULLSHIT.
it was clear as a bell to see.
surprised it hasn’t been talked about yet.

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This moment??

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538 does very little if any polling. They aggregate polls into their models.

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Luntz has made his luntz money for years by creating fake data to boost GOP chances. He would have no compunction about polling on whether to gas Jews, if it could help get another Republican elected

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Lutz gets rich spewing this sort of crap. Trouble is, there are viewers for it.

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