PARIS — French authorities say they observe no signs of increase in the numbers of people infected with the coronavirus 10 days after the country ended its lockdown.
Now that’s a piece of good news…but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This pandemic hasn’t run its course yet.
Yes, a small piece of good news. Nevertheless, France’s reopening is very partial, they are still more strict than most of the US.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&year=2020-05-07&country=FRA+USA
The street market reopened today in my little corner of France, as did pretty much everything except cafés, restaurants, and crowded places like theatres, but there are strict mask and other rules for public activity and transportation. It’s still very much a Covid life, but it does feel like a world of progress.
This is a ridiculous inference. It can take up to 10 - 14 days to come down with covid-19 after exposure, and then up to another 10 or more days to develop symptoms serious enough to have to go to the hospital. Let’s see how they’re doing in three weeks.
Who in France is saying this? Surely not their public health experts.
When I look at two of my usual reference sources for daily numbers, http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ and https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I see that 2 of the past 10 days for France have zero new cases reported. Is that reporting glitch driving down their moving average?
Perhaps that. Perhaps the ostrich effect. Only time will tell.
Oh yay, news from France! (My trip back this summer is now on hold…dammit)
Here’s s longer version of this story:
It’s very surprising there are so few comments here. Is it reflective of there being very few TPM members with some sort of public health or other applicable background? Or are there just other fish to fry?
I’ve raised the issue above that 10 days is way too early to know for sure how matters will proceed in France. If things are truly going well there in a few weeks, then that would imply that their mitigation measures are working while they are opening up. Otherwise, if it doesn’t go well, those yellow coats may very well be back.
As noted in the TPM article, the official being quoted is the Minister of Health.
What the article does not say is that he’s a neurologist.
Europe is moving into tourist season. Countries that rely heavily on travel spending are trying to assure people that their beaches, hotels, museums, and such attractions are safe. So there is an incentive to massage the data and get a politically favorable forecast. France has AFAIK kept a rational set of COVID19 books to set the public exposure levels that are critical to controlling the disease, so I give them a wait and see pass on their reopening strategy.
There is no “safe” at this point. Tourism will cause an increase in cases. The trick is to keep the increase within an acceptable level.
Exactly. Who really is behind this? And why is a neurologist doing the talking instead of an infectious disease specialist? Very fishy.
I guess countries can massage the bulk data, but I doubt whether data from individual hospitals and testing clinics will be massaged before sending. This is where good news reporting comes in.