Originally published at: Federal Court Blocks Texas Map: “Substantial Evidence Shows That Texas Racially Gerrymandered the 2025 Map” - TPM – Talking Points Memo
In yet another blow to the Trump administration’s ongoing redistricting pressure campaign, a federal court on Tuesday enjoined the use of Texas’ new map and ordered it to use its previous map for the 2026 election. In his ruling, District Judge Jeff Brown, who is a 2019 Trump appointee, said in his ruling that the…
Well, that’s going to make things interesting. There was already the potential for the Texas map to swing back against Republicans who assumed the Hispanic vote percentage in 2024 was a permanent thing, and now they may have that on top of losing their gerrymandering, a possible net loss of seats. Serves them right of course, but it’s neat to see justice do the right thing quickly.
The question now is if CA goes ahead with their redistricting…the case isn’t over until the Supreme Court rules, and that will take some time, so CA won’t let up now. There is a real chance that the process goes past the deadline CA has to set the districts, so if it goes against Texas in the courts they may have doubly screwed themselves. This alone may end up enough to swing the House even if there’s not a blue wave. There is a lawsuit against CA, but it’s not likely to succeed as the voters made the choice to redistrict and the redistricting was not nearly as extreme as it could have been so should easily pass legal muster.
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While the Supreme Court has allowed political gerrymandering and has whittled down the definition of racial gerrymandering, the latter is still, at least in theory, illegal.
“But, voting while black or brown is ALSO illegal!”
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I expect CA to continue with its redistricting effort - it was, after all, mandated by a popular referendum. They will need to do it because no one can count on the Supreme Court not to intervene, despite its own Purcell doctrine. Filing closes for 2026 primaries December 8 - this year.
My expectations will be that CA has new maps - assuming they survive the ill-fated GOP lawsuit - but the there will be a trigger on them based on the Texas’ case appeals. Regardless, the CA maps need to be in place before the primaries. (Filing deadline in March 6, 2026)
https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2026-candidate-filing-deadlines
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Virginia is working on a mid-decade redistricting plan, too, though they are up against some tough deadlines to do it. It requires a constitutional amendment, which, in turn, requires it to be passed by two different sessions of the legislature with an election in between, and then it has to be passed by the full electorate in a referendum. (Details in the Virginia Mercury here.)
I had to laugh at Gov. Fleece Vest’s objection when the legislature hurriedly passed this through step one in late October:
[Gov. Youngkin] accused Democrats of pushing the amendment through “in a party-line vote, in an eleventh-hour special session at the tail end of the election,” and said lawmakers did so “with debate silenced, members threatened with removal, and resolutions against political violence shot down.”
How many times have we seen Republicans play that sort of hardball? But they cry “foul” when the tables are turned.
The Nov 4 election greatly increased Democratic majorities in both houses, so the proposal should make it through the next legislative session, too. And then it will be up to the state’s voters.
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This is hilarious if the end result is TX faceplants and CA change is locked in.
There was trigger language in the original CA Prop 50 that it’d only take effect if TX gerrymandered, but this was take out because TX redistricted before CA voted, so the CA change should be locked in.
FAFO I believe is the precise term.
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Well it might have been a dummymander, they might get saved here
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There’s no sense quitting now as TX will just come back and change the maps for 2028 while following the template laid out by their loss here. Pedal to the metal for CA and all right thinking Blue states. If nothing else gets passed by the Republicans CA goes back to normal after the 2030 census and we swerve drunkenly down the road as usual.
Who brought the Texas appeal to court? Which organizations? Any well-known Texas politicos/attorneys?
Texas’s appeal was filed by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (the Office of the Texas Attorney General). He announced the state would appeal the federal court’s Nov. 18, 2025 ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court and seek a stay.