Originally published at: Donald Trump, ‘No Kings,’ and the ‘3.5 Percent Rule’
The ‘No Kings’ protests this weekend drew a massive, nationwide turnout. As I’m sure many are, I found myself wondering about the impact of these demonstrations and, more broadly, about the future for our country as it continues a speedrun into full-on authoritarianism. In conversations with friends and colleagues, I came across an academic theory…
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In a Sunday morning interview with Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo, Trump asserted, “Don’t forget I can use the Insurrection Act. And that’s unquestioned power.” He returned to his favorite thought:
“I’m allowed as you know as president [to use] the Insurrection Act. “
“Everybody agrees you’re allowed to use that and there are no more court cases, there is no more anything. We’re trying to do it in a nicer manner, but we can always use the Insurrection Act.”
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It’s strangely fortuitous that the need for “No Kings” coincides so closely with the 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence … from the King. Perhaps demonstrators could weave this anniversary in a little more?
Meanwhile, I hear the First Felon and Would Be King released a nasty little generated video showing himself as “King” and flying a plane dumping excrement on crowds of Americans. Yeah, that’s the ticket, Donnie. Tell us how “Yes I AM the King and I crap on all of YOU!”
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So, we gotta turn out over 12 million people, according to this rule of thumb. That’s gonna cost George Soros a lot in Venmo payments to protesters.
Compared to the last No Kings Day, at least here in Portland, Saturday’s protest seemed more energetic, more focused on the core issue of democracy (less of the full menu of left issues), and more populated with people under 40. To me, all good signs.
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First of all, it’s merely a rule of thumb. Secondly, things are likely to get a lot worse. When people start losing their hospitals, people discover the callousness of the republican representative against their food stamps, lack of healthcare, and an Iowa family’s little daughter Darcy no longer has a special ed teacher, people may start to get upset. We’re more than halfway there right now.
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That’s taken “Let them eat cake” to a whole nuther level.
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I realize there are a lot of actions that are more damaging….but this really hit me hard..
he’s such a destructive pile of shit.
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The next Democratic President needs to tear down the ballroom, tear up the “Rose Garden” patio, remove the gold leaf, and fumigate the White House, probably should check for surveillance bugs as well.
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So much of all of this seems to hinge on MAGA actually accepting the results of any future elections. And I’m not sure there will even be any of those. They have already shown that they don’t intend to leave office and doing all they can to make sure they don’t have to. Personally I think the next step is national strikes where no one goes to work or buys another thing until there are reforms and resignations
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Insurance donors helped build a ballroom while American family homes are gutted by quadruple insurance payments as they fall into bankruptcy.
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The 3.5% theory is interesting, but mighty iffy.
First, the of turnout across the United States is really loose. The people trying to count it changed the value to a max of 8 million. The population of adults is 228 million. That 3.509%.
Second, car horns are apparently not factored in. Neither are the drivers, nor their potential passengers.
Finally, the data excludes people who were unable to make it but wanted to go. The Mrs and I both came down with sickness that prevented us from attending. In some areas of the country, weather prohibited a larger turnout. Further, the data ignores those who were working, especially lower-wage workers who are more than likely supportive.
The Republican Party is toast. We’re coming for them.
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There is some evidence that the national media are generally understating the turnout. Here in Cincinnati, the ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox news stations said, “Hundreds” of demonstrators were out at Smale Park, while their images (charitably) showed many hundreds of people. I wasn’t there, but people I know who were said there were 10K+. Some of those estimates were based on drone imagery. I’ve seen estimates as high as 20K, but that strikes me as implausible. Smale Park has about 12 acres of open space, and that would put individuals about 5- 6 feet apart.
10K seems pretty reasonable to me, and it’s still two orders of magnitude above what our local media were publicizing.
I would not be surprised if the 3.5% criterion was actually met on Saturday.
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Someone forgot to tell Hunter Walker that the U.S. is not a parliamentary democracy and or a constitutional monarchy. 3.5% > government falling has no meaning where elections are held every four years like clockwork. Even if the leader (President) happened to be forced out – good luck there – the V-P takes over (the fascist wannabe Vance).
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These things don’t happen overnight. We are well on our way to the “3.5%”, and the really bad economic stuff hasn’t even hit yet. We will likely exceed 3.5% (12M or thereabouts) early next year, but in terms of the No Kings sociological messaging, for the United States, we may already be there.
A point that Sociologist Lisa Corrigan, (as cited by the wonderful Heather Cox Richardson), observed was that for the No Kings Day event, “every single rally (including in small towns) was BIGGER than the surrounding police force available. That kind of image event is VERY IMPORTANT if your….demonstrating social coherence AGAINST a fascist government and its makeshift Gestapo”.
I noted here last night that if only 10% of the protestors came at the federal government armed, the Government could not stand - it is not set up to repel a force of 1M Patriots ready to die for freedom.
That may be the hidden message of the No Kings event - WE THE PEOPLE are collectively replying to FCC Chair Carr’s remark that “we can make this hard or we can make this easy”. The easy way is to get everyone back into the habit “hail fellow well met” and returning to the Rule of Law as prescribed by our Constitution.
The hard way was demonstrated by both the American and French Revolutions. The size of the No Kings Event should have shown Trump and his minions that they cannot win…..the proposition they are attempting to force on the rest of us. We will have to see if they are as stupid as they have acted up until now. In an earlier age ignoring the expressed will of the people did not go well for failed authoritarians. Ask Benito Mussolini.
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“Only the Best People”. I guess when your judgement is as totally screwed up as is Trump’s, someone as incompetent as Halligan appears to be is “best” because she looks the part - like an extra on “Law and Order”. Pathetic - I hope the Judges throw both of these cases out with Prejudice and sanction Halligan. Maybe she can go back to insurance litigation - in Alaska.
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Ms. Halligan has no clue about what is and isn’t off the record. It’s mind-boggling that she insisted that the texts she sent were automatically off the record since they disappear from Signal. As a former journalist, I learned that any conversation with a source, particularly one that the source initiates, is on the record unless specified in advance. Anna Bower tried to tell Halligan that and she insisted it wasn’t the case. SPOILER ALERT: It is, and no amount of insisting it isn’t will make it so.
As you say, All the Best People™ are hard at work, and they are astonishingly clueless despite their experience in high-profile litigation.
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The 3.5% rule I suspect is not hard & fast and set in stone. Don’t over think what occured last Saturday. I think it was significant. Especially when we see trump’s childish reaction in a jet, crown on his head and dumping shit on the marchers. The No Kings rallies got under his skin.
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Oh my god. This is freaking beautiful. Not sure it moves the dial at all … I rather suspect it won’t. But these are the dumbest “master minds” in the history of self-proclaimed master minds. No wonder they insist on trampling over every norm and law. They have absolutely no idea how anything works. I’m surprised they manage to back out of their own driveways.
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A nuance, but an important one. This was the fourth rally for the same cause. Each one larger than the last. That has to count for something.
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