Discussion:

Discussion for article #245423

Huh? What happened last night that was’nt expected? Trump and Cruz on top with Rubio third…that’s what folks were saying a week ago. How are things changed by it actually happening?

Good article … much more nuanced than the initial editorial thoughts last night, which all but declared Rubio the next President. Rubio still must prove he has what it takes to be a serious contender. This has not been his first opportunity, and he failed to capitalize on his earlier moments in the sun. Almost leads one to believe he doesn’t possess the drive or perseverance for a national campaign.

Seeing as he finds showing up for key votes a heavy burden (or a waste of his time), I’m not going to fret yet. Good on paper does not equate to good in the field when it comes to Presidential campaigns. Can a perennial procrastinator actually win a party nomination, much less the Presidency?

I watched Rubio’s post-caucus speech. The first words out of his mouth were “We will take back our country!” Take back from what people? The plurality of citizens that elected Obama twice? Or, dog whistle alert: The damned niggers, foreigners, Muslims, atheists and gays?!?!?! I’m perfectly happy to have the Democrats wage an election battle against a candidate so focused and obsessed on stoking hate and fear in his followers. I don’t think it’s a winning formula. Then again the nation in general possesses the intelligence and attention span of a hamster, maybe it’ll work.

Can Rubio save Republicans from themselves? Doubtful. Given his inadequacies, he would have to save himself from himself first.

I don’t see the base of the GOP–Andy, Barney, Opie, Gomer and Aunt Bee voting for Ricky Ricardo…

I’ve said it before and I think it bears repeating: The Rube looks GREAT on paper. He’s the vision of the modern GOP that the GOP establishment wants desperately to believe they should be. That’s just pie in the sky. Not gonna happen.

The base is way too far gone for them to accept him as one of their own and he’s gonna have to turn them out. My question is this: whose people could he pick up - Rump’s or Carnival Ted’s? As you said, once he gets out of IA, whom does he appeal to?

As I said in another thread, Sanders v Clinton being a virtual tie only show there’s a lot of momentum for Dems in general.

Dozens of pre-caucus polls by many well respected organizations had Trump anywhere from 3-7 points ahead of Cruz 2-3 days before last night. I think a fairly firm consensus had been reached in that cohort of the political tea leave readers Trump would prevail by at least 2-3 points even accounting for a late Cruz surge. Scan today’s post-analysis in the major dailies and there is widespread debate over “What happened to Trump’s pre-caucus lead? What did we all miss?” I take it that Cruz’s victory is at least mildly surprising to many that thought they had pored over all the polls and data very thoroughly.

Well if history matters the answer is no. The numbers last night are very close to those of 2012, Santorum with 25 %, Romney second with a fraction less and Ron Paul third with 21%. Santorum went on to tank and Paul dropped out too. The number two man in Iowa was the nominee.

You know the Republicans are STILL screwed when the candidate who can best save them from themselves rode to office on the tea party wave and refuses to show up for work.

Rubio is only rising because he’s not gotten the front-runner vetting process. Between a Miami-Vice drug dealer connection (and a suspiciously well-to-do family) and his personal financial history, including mis-use of corporate Party credit cards for personal use, he’s going to flame out in no time.

The Rube also has another problem and its called Donald Trump.

I do not believe for one moment that Rump will go gently into that good night. He’s way too vindictive. He just doesn’t care. Once primaries get to the Deep South, the Rube isn’t going to have much appeal at all and, no, I don’t even think he can take Florida.

Has Rick Santorum dropped out of the race yet? I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he called a press conference to announce the suspension of his campaign and nobody even showed up.

Not a win, but wouldn’t really call it a loss … Iowa is repeatedly won by the conservative, Santorum won it last time. He came in third, but on Trump’s coattails. Figure Jeb or Kasich voters would generally go to him as the weak second best candidate & on preference, it was not that far from a three way tie. Cruz winning wasn’t as big of an upset as some are saying either. But, Rubio did get more votes than some thought. I think it is fair to see it as a “win” in the long run.

Pride and ego may keep Trump going. However, he dumped $10 million of his own money into the campaign in the 4th qtr, and an avalanche of primaries in the next 60 days will require a lot of travel, staff salaries and advertising to compete in them all. Sure, he’s wealthy, but I don’t think he parts with large sums of personal money very gladly. $10 million will be spit in the wind for the looming primary schedule, he’ll need to expend multiples of that to compete.
His brands are suffering, business partners across the globe are grumbling about having to be associated with him and he does have his post-race business prospects to factor in continuing to compete in a possibly losing venture.

I agree. But from the get go it was Cruz, Trump and Rubio to be on top. If one of the others had made top 3 I’d say we saw something we did not expect. I don’t understand all the broo hah hah. Trump will win NH I’m sure then it becomes a battle.

Absolutely agree on that point but I don’t think he sees that. You or I would see it but Rump just flies his freak flag and doesn’t care about the brand being destroyed. Once he picks up some wins, and he will, he see THAT as signs that he’s - uh, yuuuuge.

EDIT TO ADD: If this were a factor in his thinking (or whatever passes for that), he would’ve taken a different route before this. Now, there’s kinda no going back for him.

Good point. How can they be sure, for example, that he’s not mixed race, even if going way back? Why risk it?

Politics are fluid and a candidate’s supporters can be fickle, loyalties tested and swayed. No one wants to be on a loser’s bandwagon. The same pollsters that predicted Trump’s Iowa caucus success are the ones handing him a huge victory in New Hampshire. It will be very interesting to see if last night shifts the dynamic in NH. Yes, Trump has a very large lead, but I think at minimum Iowa’s results may narrow his victory considerably.

Yeah, not sure what Josh was smoking with that ‘Rubio is a problem for the Dems’ thread
President Obama was a serious dude running for a serious office, he had a job prior to political office, he was a smart man with a pretty decent resume in law in hoittie toittie law schools and what not. Rubio?

He’s a suit in Miami in the summer.