Discussion: Want To Know If Dems Will Get Skunked In California? Watch The Early Vote

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What idiot came up with the idea of jungle primaries?

When are the idiots in California going to scrap them?

They are profoundly undemocratic. If Californians want to experiment with voting reform, then try proportional representation, there are several flavors. Try Ireland’s single transferable vote system, for example, which has worked to ensure electoral representation reflecting the popular vote for the last century.

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This was Arnold’s gift to the GOP.

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Well, it is still possible that dems will turn out stronger on primary day itself. We shall see.

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What big blue wave?

Way too much bed-wetting going on in this article. I find it hard to believe that Californian Dems are mysteriously less motivated to change the status quo than Dems elsewhere. I find it easy to believe that the jungle primary system has led a lot of Dems to wait until clear frontrunners have emerged before casting their vote. Much better to wait until the last minute, in such a system. Also, November is a long way off.

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Once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Progressive and Libs complain and moan and groan over their craft beet and fine wine, then stay home rather than take actions. Happens over and over. We deserve what we get when we don’t vote.

Dunno. But, basically the voters approved it, as a voter initiative, to amend the CA constitution. The same folks who passed prop 13 which bankrupted the state education system. Folks always looking for “magic bullets” like jungle primaries, term limits, etc. to “improve” politics. Feh. just get the fuck out and vote.

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You do realize that we are doomed, if the Dems don’t win in November, right?

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This is a dumb article. The votes will start piling in after Memorial Day. Our ballot is extensive as we have multiple offices up and down the ticket plus ballot measures. Dems typically take their time to vote until choices become clear.

I would ignore all early vote stats. They’re meaningless. In the AZ-08 race, GOPers voted at much higher and faster numbers than Dems, except that a significant chunk of GOPers voted for Hiral Tiperneni.

Based on polling and level of campaign intensity and spending, I think there’s a better chance that the Dems win the top two spots in both CA-49 and CA-39 than they get shut out by the GOP. The likely result is a split in both, which is just fine for Dems, but I do think that in CA-49, there’s a decent chance that two Dems make it out, particularly if Doug Applegate starts to fade and his votes split.

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Every time I read about the state of things in CA I wonder who thought this was a good idea. I mean there are dozens of things you could criticize the duopoly system we have over, but until those are the rules we no longer have to play by, PLAY BY THE FREAKING RULES. And don’t tie one arm behind your back.

“if you take five unlikely events you end up with one fairly likely event.” Wait, what? I don’t think that my statistics prof taught it that way…

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Undemocratic? Really? By letting people vote for whomever they want? I don’t think so.

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I am not surprised that enthusiasm is lagging. National Democrats are doing all they can to dampen enthusiasm. They steadfastly refuse to support any kind of exciting agenda beyond get rid of Trump.

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Might surprise you to learn that we do vote. And we’ve been pretty busy with GOTV, marching, attending public meetings. Dems hold the state govt. The majority of our Congressional reps plus both our Senators are Dems. We lead the country in auto emissions standards.

I’ll stop for that glass of wine now

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One thing California Democrats are really good at and that is fucking themselves. They have proven it time after time. republicans know that they can put the absolute shittiest candidate up and they will win because Democrats are too busy being important to know they just lost the race. Then we talk about how screwy the south is, the most progressive state in the country puts up with this shit.

Agree CA voters take their time. We have lots of ballot initiative and in some cases races that aren’t even for the primary. It can be very confusing, and there is a ton of reading and learning to do before voting.

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I tend to not see too much into this. Democrats who vote by mail (in CA we have a status of “permanent absentee”) tend to be busy professionals. Republicans tend to be retirees, people who just need to die now. The numbers linked too don’t show if the results are typical or not as they don’t compare to the past years. And its very hard to find a base-line given that each year the population of absentee voters gets bigger and bigger. the link in the article does not show prior years, so no way to know.

Issa is not dumb. If he says D’s are out performing in CA-49, well then I believe him (he has no reason to lie about something that is not good news for his party). But the TPM article appears to in places just rely upon the numbers, not someone who knows those districts. Again, the numbers don’t show much.

My expectation is - like me and the so who have our ballots sitting on the dinning room table - D absentees tend to be send in later. Unlike old white retirees we have other things to do.

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By all means, let’s panic early and avoid the rush. I mean, we wouldn’t actually want to take a measured approach and wait until it’s just two or three days before the primary to say that the sky is falling.

The primary is June 5th, more than 10 days away.
Voting this early does not necessarily equal final turnout.
Journalists have a vested interest in the “horserace” narrative, and even this story has a lot of caveats in it.

So FFS, take a chill pill, do what you can to GOTV and stop buying into the fear-mongering. It serves zero purpose in electing democrats.

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“Data” is a plural noun.

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