Discussion for article #228463
Silver is floundering for anything because he simply doesn’t have the academic background that Wang has. Wang outperformed Silver consistently in 2010’s midterms while Silver crashed and burned on the close races. We are once again in midterms. Silver’s model is great in national electoral contests, he just doesn’t model statewide elections well when it’s close.
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Can we just ignore this until November and then crown someone Biggest Brain and give the other guy his Runner Up walking papers?
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Can’t we all just get along? I think both of them are intelligent and their models are both good. Obviously I prefer Wang’s model now since it shows the Dems holding on, but practically nobody else is saying that.
I also wonder if Wang harbors some jealousy at Silver’s financial success.
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I wonder why TPM never puts out a picture of Wang. Too hard to find a picture that makes him look like a doof?
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Further to the above: in what way is this not a slap-fight between two really sharp guys whose expertise slightly differs? And, if all it is, is a slap-fight, it’s definitely inside baseball–NOT a headline.
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Probably because Carinval Cruz is keeping his head down for the moment.
Is this some sort of strange math geek mating ritual?
http://www.oddee.com/_media/imgs/articles2/a98073_Flatworm_sex.jpg
“Flatworms: Fencing As Foreplay
Sex might seem easier for hermaphroditic species, but that’s very often not the case. All sea slugs are hermaphrodites. But when it comes to flatworms, fighting for the right to be the father can be a dangerous duty. The animals all have a dagger-like penis that they use to hunt for food, but when it comes time to mate, the two flatworms will go about fencing one another in order to avoid becoming the mother. When one of the fighters is stabbed, it will become the mother, meaning it has to give up substantial energy resources to its new brood while the winner will continue to enjoy the life of a bachelor flatworm”
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Way too much coverage of this non-story.
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Silver Twitter meltdown in 5, 4, 3, 2, …
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King Nerd vs. Professor Nerd: Whoever Wins…We Stand a 68.34% Probability of Losing
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Based on the fact that this tiff has recurred, in lower profile form, in each election cycle since 2008, I’m guessing the answer is “no.”
In a lot of ways, it’s starting to remind me of the endless sniping that sometimes erupts between psychologists and sociologists over which one has the One Overarching and Complete Theory of Human Behavior. That said, the fact is that Wang’s not wrong here.
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Well, obviously I hope he’s right.
The debate is a good thing, despite Silver’s childish approach. It clarifies the different modelling approaches. However liking Wang’s model because it currently favors Dems is silly. You want a model that’s correct, not temporarily comforting until election day proves it wrong. And as far as jealousy, I doubt a Princeton neuroscience professor who’s widely published in academic and popular publications is jealous of a sports stats analyst. Silver’s new ESPN 538 blog is widely reported as failing badly, which is likely the reason he’s gone nuts with this feud.
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I would say they are both brilliant but sure hope Wang is right. I can’t help but feel Nate is doing to much to really pay attention to politics these days.
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Well, I LIKE Wang’s model. Doesn’t mean I think it’s more likely. Nobody will know that til the election is over.
Well, just to highlight the silliness of this dispute, Wang’s model hasn’t exactly filled me with joy for the last week or two.
Silver would probably say that the “fundamentals” mixed into Silver’s models are now showing up in the polls that drive Wang’s polls-only model. Wang would probably say that Silver’s use of “fundamentals” masked the real state of play earlier and are now fading out of the picture and that’s what’s causing the convergence.
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It’s a slide-rule throwdown!
Boy howdy-- it’s on now!
jw1
I was responding to someone else who said “Obviously I prefer Wang’s model now since it shows the Dems holding on,”
LOl. I feel the same. I like Wang’s results better.