I have not been following this topic closely. Thoughts from others here? What do you see as the pros and the cons of Britain staying or leaving the EU? What are the practical consequences if they leave?
After the assassination of Jo Cox, I think ‘Remain’ wins narrowly.
This decision is really tough. I see good vaalid resaons for either direction:
Leave:
- Regain control of their immigration policies. The open borders required to be a member demand free movement. This puts a huge strain on their benefits system for disadvantaged people.
- Many Brits are dissatisfied that the EU is allowing in less economically stable countries (like Greece for example).
- The EU is not very democratic. Many feel the power allowed to it cannot be tempered by elections. There is now even talk of creating an EU military.
- There is a feeling that fees, taxes and such are far too high.
Stay:
- Leaving would disrupt commerce to such an extent that a recession would likely result.
- Any relief from taxes and dues would just be collected by the EU by additional penalties imposed on Britain for conducting business in the EU.
When I was discussing the issue yesterday with two British friends yesterday, (one who happens to be of Chinese decent) one mentions “Is Britain even part of Europe?”, which reminded me this question has always loomed large. Of course technically they are, but they are separated physically and by identity. For example, the Brits are the only nation coming out of WW2 with a feeling of pride for their behavior… There’s also the feeling that they never should have become involved in the EU in the first place, and getting out sooner rather than later would result in less pain.
I’m living in London, and work in financial services, so my views need to be seen in that light.
The main argument for leaving is that Britain will regain autonomy from Europe, and thus be able to better control immigration and have more control over its laws.
The main argument for staying in is that it will be better for Britain’s economy.
Clearly, I think that the remain argument makes a lot more sense. London’s role as the financial capital of Europe would almost certainly be jeopardised if we leave the EU, and once London stops being the goose laying golden eggs, well, teh country would have a really hard time.
Another thing to consider is the price that the Eu would force Britain to pay if it leaves. Look at Norway, for example. In order to gain access to the european market they need to both allow for the free movement of people and comply with large swaths of European law anyway.
Alas, no reporting on exit polls is allowed in Britain while the polls are open, so we will all have to wait until 10 tonight to get some predictions…
They went with the lesser of two evil per Krugman.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/notes-on-brexit/?smid=tw-nytimeskrugman&smtyp=cur&_r=0
Edit: Oops. I was thinking they’d all ready voted to stay in. Guess they went with the worse of 2 evils. Value of pound sure shows it too.
Remain wins, narrowly, as someone said. “Controlling” immigration is a chimera, and statistics confirm that, as with Latino immigration to US–both have declined since the '00s. Moreover, “Leave” is a transparent appeal to xenophobia, again parallel to the US situations. “Leave” is also a smokescreen to permit more privatization and less regulation. Again, parallel.
Notice a pattern?
There are also tensions because Scotland and Northern Ireland both are strongly in the Remain camp, and there is talk about secession if Leave wins.
The referendum (last year?) on leaving was defeated by a very narrow margin. If Britain is no longer part of the EU, expect the vote for Scottish independance to come up again and THIS TIME, it will go through. There’s also a real fear in Brussels that if Britain leaves, then PIGS follows shortly thereafter and it’s katy bar the door.
Personally, the idea of Johnson and Farage playing any role in shaping Britain’s political future is pretty abhorrent. As I’ve said in the past, today’s GOP has turned into an American version of UKIP.
The bookies seem to be confident of a stay. As I said before, institutional laziness made the MSM choose $$$$$ over journalism, prompting the rise of Trump (which has had ripple effects all over the world).
So the MSM made money and the ordinary people will have to deal with the consequences, should the U.K. leaves
I sympathize with the Out group on the issues of ridiculous over-regulation from Brussels, outsized German influence on the collective economic policy, and the incessant push towards “ever-closer union”…but they emphasize that far, far less than they do IMMIGRATION AND OH MAH GAWD BROWN TURKS A-COMIN’ REAL SOON KEEP THE FURRINERS OUT CONTROL OUR BORDERS!
Question: what has their prediction track record been like, do you know? Did they predict Cameron would be defeated in 2015?
I don’t think ANYONE predicted a Conservative victory in 2015.
For what it’s worth, Paul Krugman thinks that it would not be good for the UK to exit.
His analysis says it would trigger trade wars and reduce their GDP by 2%
I put lot of stock in what Krugman says.
As for me? Might as well be talking quantum physics.
I have the good fortune of having two friends, both PhD with reputations in their respective fields.
. Both tell me economics gives them brain freeze.
Thanks.
Not looking so good at present. Seems the foul weather might have depressed “Bremain” voter turnout a bit. British Pound is dropping precipitously in the overnight markets.
Results coming in, it’s literally 50-50 right now. Every new reporting moves it 50.1% one way, 49.9% the other…then back the other way.
Live result updates: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis
The “Bremain” folks haven’t done nearly as well in locales where they needed to be. It reminds me of an off-year here in the US. The crazies will walk through a wall of flames to get to the polls and the more reasonable ones will let any inconvenience distract them. As far as the Brit psyche, George Orwell once wrote:
History repeats itself.