For me, this is not a referendum on Democrats or their political legerdemain.
For me, this a referendum on white voters and frankly, I’m expecting to be disappointed.
ETA, The MSM is essentially saying that Dems will be judged on their ability to convince white people that they should NOT be racists. SMH.
I totally believe race-baiting could work. It’s only an anecdote, but I read through some comments on a Facebook post the other day by Sen. Kaine supporting Northam, and another fellow constituent asked for confirmation whether Northam supported or ever voted to support sanctuary cities. She stated that it was THE deciding factor for her. I was gobsmacked, really.
“We don’t want these guys to learn the way to win a race is to turn it into a white power argument.”
It worked for Trump, so I think we should expect to see this tactic being used in all but the bluest of districts/states in 2018. At the moment, this seems to be the primary campaign weapon in the GOP’s arsenal. As long as they don’t have any policy positions that are logical (as opposed to “lower taxes on the rich means more jobs”), they have to base their campaigns on something other than policy.
A battle for the soul of the nation.
McAuliffe won by 2 points in 2013. Warner won by less than 1 point in 2014. I predict that Northam will get a slight boost from the anti-Trump sentiment in the country (which is reflected in VA polling) and he’ll win by about 3 points. (Northam +3 is the average of the 3 most recent polls by the way). This media spin that this was somehow going to be anything but a close race is just b.s. when you look at recent history.
Gillespie does have a decent chance to win, but not a better chance than Northam. Gillespie has been running a Karl Rove style campaign - looking corporate, professional, even centrist in speeches and debates, and playing to the far right in his MS-13 ad. This is not a Trumper campaign but rather a traditional GOP/Bush style campaign. That concession from Gillespie is a sign that Trumpism has diminished value and one needs a more sophisticated approach to race baiting. Gillespie is a pro at this sort of thing, but Northam has made him pay a price for his lobbyist ties and his exploitation of racial issues. Where Ralph needs to focus a bit more is the big budget hole that Gillespie’s trickle down light budget would do to VA’s programs.
The NRA spending against Northam will help Ralph. In VA’s most populous/blue areas, it will make him look more progressive and appealing. In looking at the map for the past 2 statewide elections, it’s pretty remarkable how similar the percentages are per county. Ralph will probably do better than McAuliffe in red areas. The key is whether he can drive the same turnout and vote margins in NOVA. Even the crappy outlier Monmouth poll shows that Northam is on pace to exceed McAuliffe in NOVA.
The other thing I’m watching for is how white voters respond to this sort of cultural/race baiting campaign. The elections in 2017 to date show Democrats getting a higher percentage of the white vote than they did at any point from 2010-2016. With Obama out of office, there may be a regression to the mean with respect to the Dems share of the white vote. If that trend we’ve seen throughout 2017 state and Fed special elections holds in VA, Northam could win by a higher margin than people expect. The fake MS-13 issue raised by Gillespie is designed to blunt that.
A best case scenario for Dems is that white voters regress to the mean and Northam gets over 40% of the white vote while POC voters exceed the average because of the threat of Trump and give Dems higher #s and margin. A middle case scenario is where POC votes are strong and Northam manages to do as well as Warner among white voters. A worst case scenario is that POC numbers don’t exceed the average and white voters overperform for Gillespie as a slick GOPer who gets an uptick in suburban areas and retains Trump like margins in rural VA. We’ll see how it all works out.
And now Quinnipiac has Northam ahead of Gillespie 53-39. Here’s the poll.
Hey, any rational discussion of Democrats chances to win any national elected race has to include the elephant in the room: will the Russians interfere yet AGAIN? The DOJ, is doing nothing to ensure they aren’t. If Ds don’t vote the Rs win, if Ds vote we’re screwed too.
IQ45 has to go along with Keeblero Sessions, that little imp.
Amerrca where did we go wrong?