This is a meh report overall. Jobs reports for the prior two months were adjusted downward by 50k, so if you net it all out itâs at 151k, which I think most would consider as âmehâ. Itâs not bad, but itâs not a sign of a booming economy either.
We have a possible slowdown in manufacturing developing which is driven in no small part by Trumpâs tariffs. Contrary to the write-up, consumer confidence dipped in August because of higher costs for goods and services.
We have rising costs which are hitting both businesses and consumers, modest to decent hiring but insufficient to keep up with growth needs, and higher debt. The US economy could be on the verge of overheating, and people will start to cut back on purchases as costs for essentials go up. Interest rates will continue to go up.
The tariffs are like a ticking time bomb, it will take a while to feel all the effects. Canada and Mexico are ordering equipment to mold their own finished steel and aluminum products. In a couple years or so, the factories will open and those jobs will never come back to the US. Short video explains what will happen:
This is a number, but like Chinaâs consistent GDP growth numbers, increasingly irrelevant as a measure of what is actually happening in the economy. Bangladesh also has about 4% unemployment and great job creation, but quality of life for most, well, thatâs another issue. US housing is now unaffordable in many major urban areas. But strong corporate profits. Falling living standards, shorter life spans and higher infant mortality rates, but Dow is at record highs. An unprecedented 330% debt-to-GDP ratio, but strong dollar. Itâs a number, but I wouldnât get too excited. Itâs like looking at your odometer and deciding you are getting great mileage without noticing that the low oil warning light has been on for the past 4 weeks.
I guess Iâm confused, still. All I hear is about how Trumpâs policies, in particular the tariffs, are going to destroy jobs and increase unemployment.
And then we get this.
My confusion goes back months and, clearly, continues. Folks, this is how the GOP keeps the midterms. The GOP can point to these jobs reports and insist that the Dems want to take this away from the American people. This is a strong message, as it resonates with middle America - they just want a job that keeps a roof over their heads.
Yes, wages arenât keeping up, but they still have a job and thatâs better than none.
Someone help me understand how this doesnât truly impact the possibility of a Blue Tsunami in two months.
Timing. There is always a lag in the effect of fiscal policy. For a more immediate assessment, check the stock market. Emerging markets are in a deep nosedive now, because of the Dotardâs threats and tariffs. By this afternoon, when the new tariffs on Chinese goods are announced, not much will look the same as it does right now.
Well, well, well⌠This should keep real wages from rising.
I am never anything but pessimistic regarding the midterms, particularly given that weâve done nothing at all to counteract the kind of interference that happened in 2016. But this? Only the extant supporters of the president are going to buy it as his doing. The economically informed see the tariffs a-cominâ. Everyone outside of GOP-only voters and hardcore supporters is going to ignore this and keep right on pushing the wave onshore, because to everyone else, this midterm is solely about repudiating the man in the White House. If the election is not interfered with too badly, we might just have this thing.
He can crow all he likes - will it really make a difference to anyone except his worshippers? Even GOP candidates can crow about it - but how is it affecting their constituents? Not at all.
This is one MSM report that reflects the ignorance of the USAâs populace. The economy / government is destroying lives by the 10s of millions if you read the honest reports like this one:
https://popularresistance.org/growing-despair-amidst-insecure-economic-recovery/.
And such terrifying honest data as reported here:
âSixty percent of those who reported at least one hardship reported experiencing two or more. Almost a quarter of adults overallâ23 percentâreported experiencing food insecurity in the last year. A total of 35 percent reported either problems paying medical bills or having an unmet medical need that they couldnât afford to treat.â ⌠as reported here:
All of us could post at least 10 more such articles describing the collapse of the USAâs middle class and further collapse of those poorer, where unemployment is now reaching over 21% with 10% inflation and NO actual economic growth:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/49977.htm.
I read this article on the giddiness the surging stock market is causing:
This past month my neighbors who have always been pretty frugal buying used cars in the past, dipped into their swelling 401ks and bought a new Lincoln SUV and a new Chevrolet crew cab pickup. About 100,000 bucks worth with taxes and licenses. They are in their fifties. Itâs a sugar high feeding on itself. It wonât last much past the midterms, if that long.
Half of Americans are living in or next to poverty:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/49769.htm.
And why America is collapsing at light speed:
https://eand.co/why-americas-collapsing-at-light-speed-da304156dff0.
This is the article describing the 21.5% unemployment, 10% inflation and NO economic growth, the truth as opposed to this MSM article published by TPM:
That article quotes shadowstats.com, which has absolutely zero credibility. They concoct their inflation numbers by taking the headline inflation rate and adding an arbitrary constant.
Your article also links to âThe Economic Collapseâ blog, which states that âAccording to the Federal Reserve, 95,915,000 working age Americans were ânot in the labor forceâ in May.â In then links to FRED data. The problem is that FRED defines not in the labor force as â[Including] retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work.â
Thanks Donlad!
And look his tariffs are working too! Oh wait deficit is bad. Damn you non-trump voters!
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trade-deficit-five-month-high-despite-trump-tariffs_us_5b91b33ce4b0162f472b79dd
Unfortunately, lots of people will incorrectly interpret these Job numbers.
This is nothing more than Keynesian stimulus at work. And doing so when the Economy was already doing well. Which of course is exactly the wrong course of action.
Trillion Dollar deficits when you are at Full Employment. Itâs basically called: Eating your Seed Corn. The Fallout will be more severe when the Economy does itâs eventual Downturn.
I would advise people to anticipate the need to be better prepared for that next Downturn; it will be particularly ugly.
2014 was one of Obamaâs better years and Republicans managed to take the Senate that year, soâŚ
Bingo!
Itâs not always âthe economy, stupidâ.
The economy is expanding steadily, fueled by tax cuts, confident consumers, greater business investment in equipment and more government spending.
Please show a source the expanding economy has been fueled by tax cuts.
Itâs really easy stuff to refute becca. These two articles will help. But I think what youâre really asking is how do Republicans get away with it. You have to look at what it is their stating. And push back.
No, this isnât a strong message, itâs just a message of insecurity, stirring the pot with fear. Letting Republicans frame the message like that and we lose. A smart Democratic candidate will ask 'Is that all the American worker wants - âa job that keeps a roof over their headsâ? In the richest country on Earth? Is that all you want America - for you and your childrenâs future?
Numbers matter but citing one strong qtr of growth is ridiculous. You want an accurate growth rate you add in the previous 3 qtrs - for an annualized growth rate of 2.8%. Which is simply okay, not great. And if youâre (Trump) selling âGREATâ, youâre vulnerable. Add in the slow 2017 GDP 2.3% growth and you could turn this conversation around, making a strong message against the âbooming economyâ. And then thereâs the additional 1.5 trillion in new debt - on the backs of our children.
Itâs easy pickins - if youâre not afraid of getting your nose bloodied.