Discussion for article #239911
Either way he’ll lose, so it really doesn’t matter.
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But I’ll guarantee you this, if he says he won’t and then loses the nomination, he will.
Because he’s YOOOOOGE.
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Run donny run…if only for the entertainment factor and for giving the gop/bags heartburn!
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“We’re going to make a decision very soon, and I think a lot of people are going to be very happy.”
I am overwrought with the anxiety of anticipation.
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You mean because he’s the biggest ego this side of Zaphod Beeblebrox?
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The beauty of it being he can string “very soon” out for weeks and months – and the “ruling-out” is completely unenforceable, to boot. He can simply claim, like H. Ross Perot did in '92 – that “the folks” just won’t let it go, and by gum being a serve-the-people kind of guy he’s just going to have to jump in again.
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This is playing out just the way that Bill and Hillary planned it.
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geez, donald. what’s the rush? a good businessman keeps his options open. what if the gop establishment is not sufficiently NICE to you?
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He might not be wrong that “the folks” won’t let it go. He has touched a chord in the Republican Party, an ugly, racist chord, but a strong one. I would be delighted if The Donald split the Republican Party, but he may well have the support to make a third party run.
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Please, please run as a third-party candidate! Haha…
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His appeal is largely to the racist base of the GOP.
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Let’s see…
- He runs GOP, wins Nomination – Democrats over the moon happy, Tea Party crazy happy, establishment GOP… not so much.
- He runs GOP, loses nomination – A little more murky there… probably only establishment GOP happy.
- He runs as a third party. Democrats dancing in streets, Tea Party has their messiah, establishment GOP happy to have him as an official non-GOP target.
Given his desire to do everything big, #3 looks like the most happy people!
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I understand why TPM is devoting a lot of coverage to Trump, but does it have to be to the almost complete exclusion of even the Democratic candidates ?
The candidate that is drawing the largest crowds isn’t Trump but Bernie Sanders and I saw on another site a poll that showed Sanders closing in on HRC in Iowa. Yet TPM provides hardly any coverage of Bernie Sanders or HRC but will run a fluff piece about Donald Trump calling Miley Cryus.
Maybe it’s no longer realistic to expect anything other of TPM.
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The DeMoines Register poll,
http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31-update.pdf
It had a few interesting wrinkles in it. Bernie gained a few points, but Clinton is still in the lead. Biden gained a few points too, though that really isn’t all that surprising since speculation about his run has been all over the news for the past week.
Carson however, is much closer to Trump. If you consider second choices, its a dead heat. And Carson apparently, actually has a better ground organization (which is to say, he actually has a ground organization), than Trump.
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I don’t know what decision The Donald is going to make, but I can say this - it will be The Best decision, because Trump will settle for nothing less than the The Best.
And we laughed when the guy in the White House called himself “the Decider.”
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The question is not whether or not he has support to make a 3rd party run…the question is does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell of winning if he goes 3rd party. And the answer to that is a yuuuuge no.
He could possibly poll better than the republican nominee in some states, but in those states, both parties lose and all the electoral votes go to the Dem nominee.
The reality is, as sharply divided as the country is today, any 3rd party candidate that could garner 10% (probably more than 5%) of the popular vote, will cause a landslide in the electoral college for somebody else. And will not receive a single EV themselves. It is in someways the biggest institutional hurdle against third parties in this country, because we don’t give out EVs proportionally…its winner take all.
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I think there is still a 50/50 chance that he drops out before the first vote is cast. He just has to find a good enough excuse to explain it away, and still hold enough sway that he can play king maker within the GOP.
The Des Moines Register poll that came out yesterday shows Carson moving up on Trump in Iowa. If you consider second choices, Carson is actually tied right now. And he has a better ground game in Iowa than Trump.
Trump losing in Iowa would be bad. Trump losing to Carson would be so much worse. He loses control of the message and the media if that happens, and suddenly the non stop Trump coverage is all about how he is collapsing. Being the media darling is a double edged sword.
Oh, and Bush is collapsing like a house of cards in that poll. The top candidates on the GOP side were Trump, Carson, Fiorinia, Cruz, Walker. Can we say anti-establishment feeling?
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"
" Trump: I Will Decide 'Very Soon' On Ruling Out A Third-Party Run"
“Whatever games are played with us, we must play no games with ourselves
Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803 - 1882)”
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". Trump losing to Carson "
May lead to a birth certificate investigation and or his school records.
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