Trump may well underperform in NH, but it would have to be by a greater amount than in Iowa for him to lose his lead. Between Rubio’s performance in Iowa combined with the growing acknowledgment that B/C/K don’t have any real chance of capturing the nomination, he will probably come in a strong second, but NH is unlikely to completely abandon B/C/K to the point that Rubio can overtake Trump. Cruz comes in third, consolidating not just the minimal evangelical vote in the state, but picking up some die hard conservatives as well. Rubio’s bigger concern is coming in third behind Cruz, more than it is finishing behind one of the other establishment candidates. If that happens, he will be considered as big a loser as the rest of the field, and the narrative becomes a Cruz/Trump race.
Yes.
BTW, Cruz did Trump a favor by pulling the dirty trick on Carson. It gave cover for Trump’s loss and the subsequent crazy twitter rant he went on. Governor Branstad also helped by piling on Cruz.
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Rubio has almost certainly gotten a bump because of his ostensibly good performance in Iowa. Will it even last till next Tuesday?