Theresa May: Not Enough Support For New Vote On My Brexit Deal
[…] The prime minister says she is skeptical that a series of “indicative votes” in Parliament will be able to set a clear path forward for breaking the Brexit impasse.
When all else fails, try candor.
you think?
I see two options for her:
-
Resign. (Or as they say in Parliament, “RESIGN!”)
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Call for a vote on a second referendum.
Shorter Terri: “Vlad’s wallet closed.”
(Shorter Nigel: “Yip, yip, yip, yip!”)
I envy your mastery of parliamentary lingo.
(Or typography!)
And here’s Svetlana with some nice parting gifts for the PM!
A deal cannot happen. Brits are too damn stubborn, and no deal would ever be good as Brexit is destructive and any deal will leave both sides worse off. They should vote on remain vs. hard Brexit, the only two real choices.
No shit, Sherlock.
Interesting dynamic in the Parliament. There is a parliamentary majority against any ‘no deal’ Brexit. The EU has also left the door wide open for the UK to delay its decision so long as it participates in the upcoming EU elections. May was trying to use this deadline to force Parliament into a ‘my way or highway’ arrangement, and Parliament has essentially recoiled at it and has been adamant in opposition. I’ve been streaming Parliament sessions over the past few weeks and they’re the ones who raised the issue of May not being able to bring up the same failed measure for a 3rd time.
Nobody on the Tory side wants the job of PM/party leader until May fully fails here. She’s either going to withdraw her plan or let it go for a failed 3rd vote (which may get blocked by the Speaker of the Parliament. Consider it the UK’s version of a Byrd rule where the rules of the body put limits on what you can put for a vote and the threshold required).
If she were to formally withdraw her plan, then she would have to allow indicative votes on different plans that can get a majority. If she does not support the indicative votes, then I’d think that a majority of Parliament would force it on her through some parliamentary maneuver (think of it like the repeal vote on the national emergency bill. McConnell couldn’t stop it b/c of certain rules that applied stemming from that law).
At that point, the indicative vote that would have the best chance of success would be a soft Brexit of the type supported by Corbyn. It’s also possible that if Corbyn got behind the measure that a repeal of Article 50 or a new referendum might also pass, but the probabilities aren’t that great and if it did pass it would only do so by the slimmest of margins. The other possibility is a big punt: the Parliament agrees to participate in the EU elections and gets a long extension, which can then open up possibilities for a new election and/or new referenda.
Either way, once Theresa May’s proposal is withdrawn or defeated and Parliament essentially takes over, there wouldn’t be much rationale to keeping her on as the PM. Unlike the last 2 weeks, I see the threat of a ‘no deal’ Brexit diminishing a bit and the likelihood of May’s resignation or removal as PM by the end of April a higher probability.
Finally, some good news!
ETA
“I’ve never known this country so divided, so angry and in such a dangerous state,” he said.
But enough about America.
“Brexit is like the Death Star of politics,” Conservative legislator George Freeman said. … death star … They deserve what they built - it was about as screwed up, irrational & skewed by ignorance as it could get - and yet the real zealots will cling to it with their last dying breath.
is there some feasible path to a re-vote? or simply having Parliament - upon thorough consideration - determine that the original vote was lacking any sufficient means of execution and thus it will be set aside and committees will be formed to explore the original intentions and evaluate what measures might be taken to fulfill the most practical and feasible - and in the meantime everyone go about your business as thought all is the same …
… sort of “Oh this will be a giant freaking disaster? hum … well, never mind… carry on”
Top 2 ‘not no deal Brexit’ possibilities:
- A Corbyn backed move for a soft Brexit (stay in customs union).
- A decision to punt the decision for a year and UK Parliament agrees to participate in the EU elections upcoming in May.
The way to a new vote or a repeal of Article 50 is through the 2nd option.
- my understanding is that Parliament does have the power to simply decide that the original vote was not legally binding and can exercise judgment … now whether Pariament would have the courage or wisdom tot do so is another thing
True but the votes aren’t there for that yet. Finding a way to punt the decision for say a year is what will provide the opening to cancel Brexit.
God they would dearly love to punt for a year.
“I’ve never known this country so divided, so angry and in such a dangerous state,” he said.
It’s what happens when you are under sustained attack in a new cold war, and you don’t even know it. Our enemy is using the latest psi-ops techniques to undermine our civil society, and the campaign is successful beyond Putin’s wildest dreams.
The EU rather not.