Discussion for article #228820
Also, many of these polls has Gardner winning the Latino vote so I think that these polls are suspect. Colorado is notorious off on its polling.
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We know what Udall is doing to get the women vote. What is the campaign doing to make sure they are turning out Latinos?
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Anybody know if this ādata-drivenā GOTV might work in KY?
Inquiring minds wanna know.
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Biggest problem for Udall is the GOP didnāt nominate Buck, that is what cost them in 2010. Had they used their brain, they would have nominated Jane Norton and she would have won.
DSCC pulled their money after Grimes refused to say if she voted for Obama. Sheās fumbled this campaign away way too many times. If she wins, great, but sheās on her own, and that hasnāt worked well so farā¦ damn it!
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Instead they are pouring a million dollars into the Georgia race which makes sense since SUSA poll out this morning has Nunn beating Perdue 48% to 45%.
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I am not sure why Colorado pollsters notoriously under poll Democrats in Colorado. It happened in 2010, 2012 and perhaps in 2014.
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I am cautiously hopeful that Udall will pull this out. It is very easy to vote here. Every registered voter is receiving a ballot in the mail this week. You can mail it in, drop it off at any polling place, or go in and vote in person. You could register on-line. If you forgot to register, you can register at a polling place the same day you vote. A family member has been working at phone banking this week at a Udall office in the suburbs. She has been struck that women donāt just oppose Gardner - they positively loathe him. So the intensity factor will help Udall. Plus, thereās yet another Personhood amendment on the ballot (the third try) which will help turn-out among women.
Denver has had a very successful 5-year program that has reduced teenage pregnancies by 40% and abortions by 30% in the state ā mostly free IUDs and implants for teenagers. Yet Beauprez (the Republican candidate for governor) considers those abortions and will cancel the program. He will also defund Planned Parenthood. Gardner has an ad that he would like to make the pill available over the counter, but wonāt say anything about IUDs or implants and his Federal personhood bill would ban those.
Weāre not stupid. We know whatās going on in Texas and other states to effectively ban abortions with end-runs around Roe v. Wade. Fingers crossed ā Udall and Hickenlooper will win, but it will be close!
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āBennet beat the polling margin by nearly 4 points, according to Real Clear Politics. President Barack Obama did the same in 2012.ā
How often does this have to happen until we get it that most of the internal polls at this stage of the game are gamed? Romneyās people manipulated the numbers, we knew that the day after the election, so why is it, with this kind of pattern of apres-proof we havenāt learned that lesson.
Iām not talking about the independent pollsters, or Poll Tracker, here on TPM, they attempt to see it pure, but whn election after election ends a half dozen points off of the last-ditch polling, we have to reconsider them as a viable resource, even on the average.
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Iām suspicious of the so-called independent pollsters, too. The poll a couple of weeks ago that had Gardner ahead by a few points (included in the TPM tracker) bragged that they included cell phones, while the other polls didnāt. But in my very large downtown high-rise, only 10% of residents have landlines. And the state has enjoyed a substantial influx of young people in recent years. They bring their cell phones with out-of-state area codes and the pollsters donāt seem to be calling them. Even taking into account cell phones, the polls still seem to be heavily weighted in favor of older, rural voters with landlines.
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How the hell can Udall be in trouble? His opponent is a very-recently reformed nutcase. What in blazes has Udall be doing for the past six years?
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Thatās a faulty cause and effect analysis. They pulled the ad money (they are still dumping money into the GOTV efforts) because A) the ad space is pretty much already bought up now B) Alison is doing extremely well in fundraising (she just had another record month) C) There are a ton of PACs as well as her campaign with money to spend and D) the money can be better spent in other places, as well as being part of the feint and parry strategy with the GOP.
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Gee, isnāt it a bit early for sour grapes?
Gardner is a lying whack job, which is becoming the model for conservatives these days.
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I believe it is already being applied in KY, though not being part of the campaign strategy sessions, I canāt say for sure.
However, in contrast to what you were told below, the DSCC only pulled their ad money from Grimes. They are still ponying up plenty of cash for GOTV efforts, and they even indicated as much in the press release yesterday.
So if they are paying for it, its a pretty safe assumption its being done along the guidelines.
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They do, but we also donāt win in Colorado by huge margins, so its a state that always makes me a little uneasy every other November.
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Another edition of:
āThings RWNJs Say to Make Themselves Feel Good.ā
jw1
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Thereās way more to it than what was initially stated:
8:52 PM PT: Tuesday Oct 14: Today a rumor was spread throughout national media by irresponsible nationally-known media (Chris Cillizza, Jon Heilemann, Mark Halpirin, MSNBC, CNN) that āDemocrats have abandoned Grimesā. Heilemann and Halperin agreed on their program that āHer campaign is deadā.
This rumor was based upon the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) not having pre-purchased ad buys in KY market for last 3 weeks of campaign. The DSCC has been very active in the Kentucky market, with great ads playing. The DSCC acknowledged this was true, but that they were open to purchases if necessary.
Guy Cecil, the Executive Director of Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, posted at about 8:00pm eastern Tuesday night 10/14, on Twitter:
ā¦
Guy Cecil ā@guycecil 3h 3 hours ago
Just signed a $300,000 wire for the KY Get Out The Vote operation
for @AlisonForKY. Thatās an interesting view of "pulling out of the race
Donāt always trust the gossipmongers in the Beltway media.
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Heās trying to corner the market for sour grapes.
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But heās an āindependentā sour grape.
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