Brilliant people, aren’t they?
I know it’s off topic. But there are five articles on Live Wire - all five - that are about Trump, and not one commentable article about Sanders’ apparent victory in Indiana. Isn’t it just a tad interesting, in purely political terms, that Sanders can still win a state, even though everybody thinks that Clinton’s gonna be the nominee? What does that say about the voters and the Democratic Party?
Discuss.
This just in: #NeverTrump has a little announcement:
It says that Bernie’s message still resonates, but that the proportional allocation of delegates makes it almost impossible for him to clinch the nomination.
I’ll say it did:
Dear NeverTrumpers
Please look up the word Never in the dictionary then follow that by looking up Pledge.
Then stick to it.
It appears that all polls were wrong in Indiana. So far Bern is outperforming all of them. That has happened in some of the open primaries, but not all of them. Looking at the returns,he’s performed well in the central and northern part of the state where it borders with Wisconsin. She is strongest in the southern part of the state which borders with Kentucky.
If Sanders holds on and wins Indiana by the margins they are at currently, in order to go into the convention with more pledged delegates (ignoring that Clinton will already have more total deflates to lock the nomination on the first ballot)… Sanders would need to win the following contests by the margins indicated:
Guam: Sanders +43
West Virginia: Sanders +52
Kentucky: Sanders +35
Oregon: Sanders +57
Virgin Islands: Sanders +43
Puerto Rico: Sanders +17
California: Sanders +31
Montana: Sanders +62
New Jersey: Sanders +13
New Mexico: Sanders +18
South Dakota: Sanders +40
North Dakota: Sanders +67
District of Columbia: Tie
No part of Indiana shares a border with Wisconsin. Illinois is between Indiana and Wisconsin
It says that Bernie can not win the nomination; do the math. Regardless of who wins Indiana (a red state that won’t matter in the general election relative to the delegates needed by Democrats to win the presidency), the net change in delegate count will be around 2 or 3. Heck, Bernie will likely win West Virginia too, another red state that won’t matter much in the general election for the same reason.
Piece of cake!
If I may, my guess is he takes the Dakotas, Oregon and probably Montana. Possibly West VIrginia. But that’s it.
What is interesting is Sanders outspent Clinton in ads in Indiana $1.8 million or $0.
Imagine what that money would do for a down ballot progressive Congressional candidate that needs that cash.
I don’t disagree Sanders can, and is likely to win, the contests you mention. But nowhere near those margins.
Unnecessary. Sanders IS the revolution no one else is needed.
Yeah. I meant Michigan.
No worries.
Glad you pointed it out. A few days ago I looked up the demographics of IN,KY,WI,IL,MI and OH just to try to get a feel for IN and KY.
So it looks like Hillary won big in Gary, and won a bunch of counties along the Kentucky line. Only immediately discernible pattern on Bernie’s side (other than not winning in those places) is that he does appear to have run up big totals in towns with lots of students (South Bend and Bloomington, for example), which is not exactly a big surprise. But I think it’s a bit more unexpected that Bernie is virtually tied with Hillary (narrowly leading her at the moment) in Marion County (Indianapolis).