Thereās no overconfidence on the side of Dems.
Every campaign I check in on is working hard from the ground up.
Winning aināt easy. We all know this.
One of the things that is prompting these āslow your rollā pieces are these junky NYT/Siena polls. Weāre doing very well in a lot of them but there are a few where we donāt have a nominal lead. These polls have been flatly contradicted in other surveys (e.g., Monmouth). These guys donāt even pretend to hide it. Theyāre making it up as they go along. The bias in these polls that I detect is that there is a response rate bias towards traditional voters in the district. So, if youāre in a Dem district, youāre going to get more traditional regular Dem voter responses. If youāre in a traditional GOP district, youāre going to get more traditional GOP voter responses. The point is that these contested GOP districts are changing with newer voters, independent voters and more active Dem voters who collectively outnumber the GOP voters. These polls donāt pick that up. But one thing that they have picked up is that there are very, very few GOP incumbents that are hitting 50% or close to it. By that measure alone, the Dems are headed for a big victory. If you look at overall House polling in Florida, for example, the Dems are on track to win 4 to 8 seats there alone. Thatās unprecedented for Dems. We have way more money than these GOPers and weāre putting it to work while we raise more. We have better candidates and better messaging. Weāre going to win not because weāre overconfident, but because we are working hard and itās not the other sideās year. Our candidates have to get to a threshold name ID for voters and theyāll more often than not beat the GOP challenger.
Yes, and I think a lot of people are mistaking overconfidence for hope. We have great hope that we can still save our democracy. Michael Moore was on Morning Joe the other day saying we shouldnāt even have hope. I like him, but heās wrong about that. Hope is why I send Beto, Nelson, Gillum, and Abrams some money. Hope is what pushes someone in a ruby red district to go vote even if they just know thereās no way a Democrat can pull it off. Hope is all weāve got.
It only works if if hope and confidence translate into votes. But I think it is different this timeā¦and I donāt think that is either hope or overconfidence.
From your lipsā¦I saw pluckyās response before I saw your full post. It is different this time. You can sense it, feel it. But I am still ever so vigilant. And it remains totally shocking to me that we have to fear Russian operatives as much as we do the ones from the GOP. And that they all work for the same cause.
I was in an election officer training session in my county this morning. In the past Iāve worked at polling precincts. This time Iāll be processing absentee ballots. One of the trainers said that they mailed 25,000 absentee ballots yesterday. A year ago they mailed about 10,000. She said thereās more interest in this yearās mid-term election than sheās ever seen in any other non-presidential election. Everyone in the room nodded our heads knowingly. We couldnāt say anything about the motives for that interest, because we canāt discuss our political views at all, either among ourselves or with anyone in the voting public when weāre on duty, but we all knew what she was talking about.
I think turnout will be huge this year. Probably not as much as in a presidential year, just because, but a lot of people want to have their say. And - I hope - a lot of people learned that leaving it up to others to carry the weight of voting (because Iām too busy, or I donāt really like either candidate, or itās rainingā¦) doesnāt always lead to good results. If we get high turnout, and lots of absentee ballots returned, Dems should win big. Turnout is the key.
I agree and I think hope and confidence turn out voters more than just panic.
It sure worked for Obama.
This is no time for braggadociousness or bluster
That word ā¦ is atrocio [sic].
You are correct. hahahahahahaha
Since turnout was about 57% in the 2016 general election, anything more than that will look oh so good.
Some DemocratsBed Wetters and Foxzis Warn Of Dangers Of Overconfidence Heading Into Midterms
We arenāt overconfident dullards; we are coming for you. All of you traitors, Nazis, collaborators, and enablers.
I appreciate the 2003 level concern trolling; I really do. The tsunami gives us the House and weāll hold every āredā seat and then take NV, AZ, TX, and TN. The resulting investigations will make Bengazi look like a Steve Douchey interview with der Gropenfuhrer.
Nothing to add except youāre my favorite poster on here. Thanks for the intelligent, rational, reasoned analysis that you always provide.
Iām not really familiar with Michael Mooreās work, but just looking at his persona and overall media presence Iād rank him with what I call political entertainers. Nuance, subtle analysis, and restraint are of no use to him, and optimistic scenarios do him no good at all. Like the Rushes and Glenn Becks of the world, he makes a living presenting the situation as maximally dire. Itās like a horror film. You donāt make Godzilla four feet long and capable of inflicting a nasty bite that could get infected. Youād never work in films again if you did. You make him big enough to smash buildings by walking on them. Thatās what Moore does.
He does fill a niche ā¦ however ā¦
Iāve never been one to just react because of over dramatization ā¦
but there are those who will not ā¦ without it ā
Plus ā¦ in our current circumstances ā¦
is Moore really that far off ? ? ā¦
doG knows that probably anything ā¦ anything could happen with
butt hook in office ----
Thatās a good point. And of course anything could happen, and people are concerned about that, no matter how restrained they are. Just saying Moore has no incentive to emphasize the positive, optimism-boosting signs weāre seeing.
I am anything aside from overconfident. And I live in deep blue Orygun.
Each and every morning I meditate on having tRump as resident until 2014, McConnell as Senate Majority Leader and McCarthy as House Speaker. Plus a cabinet of Oligarchs.
This old soldier will remain focused on the tasks in front of me and on the balls of my feet, now and until after November 2014 if needed.