Discussion: Sanders Gains On Clinton In Monmouth Poll

Discussion for article #244860

Sanders still has a long way to go, not that national polls mean too much at this stage. Best thing for Bernie is, he’s got Big Mo. For Hillary, it’s the knowledge that there aren’t a ton of undecided voters left, and those who are will be less likely to break as a bloc for Sanders. She’s trying to hold on here and stem the tide, and I do think she will. Nevertheless, this is the race that DWS tried to stop, and can only be a good thing for the party and the eventual ticket.

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Try reporting on other polls that show Clinton ahead by a much bigger margin.

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Latest polls show that people are already tired of polls!

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Not too shabby… But still a long way to go before Bernie starts turning up on the winning side of some these national polls. And of course we don’t have a national primary we have state primaries (and caucuses).

Which brings me to this question: Is there some new law against polling in South Carolina and Nevada?

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I’ll toss this in with the poll showing HRC up 25 pts nationally, Trump killing it nationally and, for good measure, Trump beating HRC nationally.

National polls are pretty meaningless at this stage. Would love to see Bernie overtake HRC but, unless he wins Iowa, as George HW Bush used to say “Nah gah hah”

Precisely… An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released just yesterday has Clinton up by 25 points. Monmouth is not known to produce the most accurate polls in the world…

For a realistic perspective of how things are politically, see Nate Silver’s http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

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Results might disrupt the narrative of “Clinton camp panicking…”

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Nate Silver’s formulas show Clinton ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and killing Sanders in Nevada and South Carolina. Left wing media needs to quit bashing Clinton and get on the train, as it still looks really solid that she’s going to be the one (80% chance).

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Doesn’t mean much by itself, but does a tiny bit to sustain the impression that Hillary isn’t very good at politics, and is especially poor at campaigning. I don’t think that Bernie will be as good as Hillary in the general, so this kind of news is disheartening if you give it weight. So, yeah, let’s talk about the other polls instead.

Posters feelin’ the BERN!

Yes, long way to go but optics always play even when poll integrity comes into question. And let’s not forget, Clinton campaign has outspent Sanders on the tele (Iowa/NH) by about 3/1.

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I disagree completely. To me, Sanders’ surge is about the strength of Sanders as a candidate and his message, and a lot less about what HRC is or isn’t doing. It’s just like the people who convinced themselves that Obama won reelection because Romney was terrible. Obama won because he had a great record to run on and because he’s a master campaigner.

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The train can be boarded at Convention Station. No need to rush that whole democracy thing.

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it was…

I agree with you. The problem for me is that Hillary is a hawk and will send us, the cannon fodder for the majority of US citizens who have never served and will not serve, to some stupid ass dumb war to satisfy some political agenda. Bernie will not. President Obama has tried to bring us home and I admire him for this. She will not do this.

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Um, they did:

Or did you mean they should only report on the one national poll that was s most favorable to her, and not report on the other 4 national polls this month – which all show her lead shrinking into the teens or single digits?

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I agree Plucky…

I’d add that…

As voters look at Bernie and get more comfortable that he is showing his ability to make a go of it, they realize HRC, while a formidable candidate, is not the only electable candidate.

Obama saw this too as his appeal to voters became clearer and the fear of losing the General on electability terms subsided.

it may turn out different, Bernie is no Obama in terms of a gifted communicator, but the party is happy with the progressive gains and is bolder in its desire to run to the left. By this metric, Obama is no Bernie.

(i say this although I think Bernie is a fine communicator, and Obama a fine progressive)

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Professor Poopypants: Which brings me to this question: Is there some new law against polling in South Carolina and Nevada?

CTVoter: Results might disrupt the narrative of “Clinton camp panicking…”

Quite possibly. But if the next round of polls do show him gaining ground in Nevada and/or South Carolina, the “worry in the Hillary camp” thing may quickly become more than just a media narrative.

Right now, despite that media narrative (which I do think is overblown at this point), most reporters are also quick to note that “she’s still leading by large margins in Nevada and South Carolina,” whereas the truth is we actually don’t know whether that’s the case or not at this point.

So, depending on what the actual state of the race is in Nevada and South Carolina at the moment, the lack of recent polls in those states may be helping Clinton’s narrative more than it is hurting her narrative at this point – we can’t really know for sure given the lack of current data.

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I’m pretty pro-Bernie, but would not go as far as you here.

I think HRC is stuck in the 90s democratic claptrap that Dems are perceived as weak on defense matters and feels she needs to talk tough. This comes off as accepting as a truism these GOP memes and allows the lazy media to buy this BS.

I also think that she feels the need to talk tough to show a woman is tough enough to be president.

this thinking too is outdated, the only people that believe that a woman (this woman especially) is not tough enough for the job are largely solidly republican voters.

I don’t know why she is taking these stands that buy into Repub memes to win a democratic primary. It may be desperation, it may be, a misread of how far the party has come. I don’t know, but seems that even some of the more die hard HRC fans are taking notice and see this as misguided at best.

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