Discussion: Rohrabacher And Dems Scramble To Block A Common Foe In Key House Race

Democracy is about having a choice. California’s jungle primary is basically a lottery that heightens the risk of making a mockery of that principle every time an election is held. It should be a top priority to get rid of it; and I’d think there’d be good reason both for Republicans who get shut out of statewide contests and Democrats who get shut out of swing districts to want to get rid of it enough to work together to do just that.

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I’ve said it before: The top-2 primary is a lesson in the Law of Unintended Consequences.

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The hand-wringing seems a bit premature.

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I continue to maintain that Dems won’t get shut out of any race, and have a decent chance to shut out the GOP in CA-49. There’s a lot of firepower going up against Scott Baugh in CA 48, and Dem Harley Rouda is a good fit for that district with his business/tech entrepreneur background. I do think Gil Cisneros will emerge as the Dem candidate in CA-39 as the GOP is splintered and he is consolidating. In CA-49 there are 4 Dems vs 2 GOPers but the GOPers are splitting their vote while Levin, Applegate and Jacobs split theirs. The other guy Kerr is a Dem saboteur but he’s not polling well. My sense is that Levin and Jacobs are emerging as the top Dem favorites and at least 1 (if not both) will go through due to the heavy Dem spend and activity on the ground. The GOP can’t match it.

Dems seem likely to shut the GOP out of the Senate race. My disappointment so far, based on polling, is that we’re missing the opportunity to shut the GOP out of the Governor’s race as Villaraigosa appears to be anywhere from 2 to 7 points behind GOPer John Cox. I do think if Antonio gets a big latino vote out of the Central Valley and Southern California he’ll have the numbers to get to #2, but I wish the polling showed him ahead of Cox.

Thus far only 20%-25% of the total likely electorate has voted, so the bulk of the vote will be coming in post Memorial Day holiday through Election Day. No need to sweat this. Just need to vote.

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House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) famously joked behind closed doors that “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump”).

What on earth makes you think it was a joke?

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shakes my fist at Murphy

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Scott Baugh is getting clobbered from every side at this point. I live in this district and have never seen anything like this. Voted for Harley. If he gets in against Rohrabacher I think he can win it.

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Applegate is still strong, but I agree Dems look like they could dodge the lock out bullet

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Turnout in CA-49/SD County on the Dem side is pretty high. Add that to the Indies (who have leaned Dem across the country in this cycle so I don’t see why itt would be different in CA) and the overall statewide Dem advantage over GOP in terms of cast ballots (increasing by the day at a fast clip), I think Dems won’t get locked out and the probability of locking out the GOP in a few races (including CA -49) is growing. If I had to place a bet, I’d say Dems lock the GOP out of the Senate race and CA-49 (and perhaps some other statewide offices like AG,LG). What I really want is to lock them out of the Governor’s race. We need a big latino boost for Villaraigosa and a drop for Chiang/Easton for that to happen.

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I agree Baugh is getting plummeled. And Keirstead has sent out mailers attacking Harley. Which I take as a sign he falling behind.
However Republicans that I’m involved with are fed up with Rohrabacher. I think it’s going to be very close race for second.
I never dreamed that a race let alone a primary for my congressional district. Would be the contest that keeps me up late on a Tuesday night.

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Who is funding Kerr? He’s putting out nothing but negative ads.

I thought that Applegate was leading in the polls, but it’s hard to find information. I just want to vote for whoever has the lead to avoid a lockout.

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I want to see Rohrabacher gone. I don’t care what it takes or how it’s done - I just want that Russian agent out of my Congress.

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It’s not clear who has the lead, but the Dem establishment and outside groups which support Dems are supporting Levin and Jacobs. That’s where the extra cash and efforts are going. Both have good activity on the ground. Applegate has a loyal core of supporters but his money has faded considerably. Levin has been the best pure fundraiser of the group and I think he would be an Adam Schiff clone if he made it into the House. I am biased as I have met and spoken with Levin and have attended one of his fundraisers. Jacobs has run a pretty good campaign and is getting some respect because of her father’s achievements (Qualcomm).

The way I see it, the overall Dem statewide advantage vs the GOP is growing day by day. That means that the number of Dems and Indie leaning Dems are going to outnumber a split GOP field. It tells me that Dems can handle 2 candidates and beat the GOP, but 3 or 4 is stretching it. I see voters making those types of choices to downselect to their preferred 2. The vote in CA-49 is a tough call, but if I were voting there, I’d choose either Levin or Jacobs as having the best chances to win. The flaw with Applegate is that if he were as strong a candidate as he demonstrated vs. Issa in 2016, he should’ve been able to get clear distance from Levin and Jacobs and the GOP field. He should lead the field by a solid margin. The fact that he isn’t is an indication that the bulk of the vote is shopping for an alternative, and if you’re a Dem that leaves Levin, Jacobs and Kerr. I think it’s pretty easy to tell that Kerr is a fraud, so that gets it down to Levin or Jacobs.

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Hey Hey…

[quote=“tena, post:13, topic:72875, full:true”]
I want to see Rohrabacher gone. I don’t care what it takes or how it’s done - I just want that Russian agent out of my Congress.[/quote]

You bet… Screw flip-flopping #Rohrabacher and the Afghanistan horse he rode in on in 1988.

Dana Rohrabacher’s War

In the ’80s he took up arms with Afghanistan’s mujahideen.

======
~OGD~

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There’s that Venn diagram at work

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As you know, I am in CA39 and voted for Cisneros.

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I would love to see that SOB Rohrabacher out. I thought you lived in this district. There are 4 of us in OC who post regularly on TPM.

@yehoshua —are you in OC too?

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The best example of why this is a fucking total disaster is the current Gov of Maine, where the candidates who were not mentally insane cancelled each other out, allowing Paul lePage to bull through. This is going to happen in multiple districts in CA.

I am in a district adjacent to Rohrabacher’s. Thank goodness. Many of my friends are in the 48th. I want that pig gone. He is nasty.

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