Discussion: Republicans Underperform But Hang On To Heavily GOP AZ House Seat

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If I recall correctly, the Dem candidate had far inferior financial resources. I wonder what would have happened if the national party had put more money into her campaign and highlighted it more so as to galvanize far more small donations from across the country.

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A 5.8 spread in AZ-8 is more like a democrat victory than a GOP win because the 8th is heavily republican. Trent Franks won by double digits commonly
trump too the 8th by 21 points in 2016.

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The median age of early voters was 68

The median age of death in the US is about 82, so that’s a hell of a thing.

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Bill Kristol (via MSNBC) says the GOPers have lost the House in the next election and he is saying trump started out awful and isn’t getting any better.

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As t approaches infinity, Ames, Iowa = 1955…

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“Congratulations to Debbie on her hard-fought victory,” House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) said in a statement. “Her victory proves that Republicans have a positive record to run on this fall and we need to spend the next seven months aggressively selling our message to the American people."

Sounds like whistling past the graveyard, no?
I suppose Ryan’s gotta put on a happy face until they figure out who to scapegoat for the loss. Not that it’s gonna be any skin off his nose, regardless.

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This continues the 13-16 point average move towards Democrats in special elections since Trump was elected. If that margin holds, the Republicans will be crushed in November. If…

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Why Ames?

Republican probably still would have won. There are a huge number of retired well-to-do people in that district who vote R. My parents lived in the second expansion of Sun City and while it was fairly affluent the 3rd expansion was really wealthy. The areas north of Peoria is very upscale. Wealthy equals Republican. Don’t know why they are so ignorant about how money/taxes work. What was really annoying and is no doubt still the case in the Sun City communities is that homeowners paid a fraction of the school taxes the rest of Phoenix paid.

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I do not fathom why people think the Orange Mussolini will get better. He won’t He isn’t capable of it.

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Ryan is delusional. He did nothing to lead the House to pass legislation. He is pathetic.

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Franks actually won by 37 points in 2017. Now that is a swing. Because this is Sun City, the Democrats pretty much acted like it was a foregone conclusion. They shouldn’t have. On the day of Trump’s inauguration, I was down at the state capitol and there were busloads of blue hairs (all women) coming down to join the protest. The following day during the women’s march there were a huge number of older women participating.

This margin, even though a loss, is huge! 37 points down to 5 in Sun City, AZ - I can’t stop thinking about it.

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I’m scratching my head here. What is the Republican message? $17 billion for the rich and $1 trillion in debt? Ain’t it grand?

Republican WSJ can’t figure out why there hasn’t been a surge in consumer spending since the tax cut. Cluelessly WSJ refuses to connect the dots. Lying that lower/middle class homes will receive more money because of the tax cuts does not ACTUALLY give them more money. And as everyone knows, it’s the lower income earners that drive consumer spending, not the super-hyper-ultra rich who actually got the tax cut.

And, of course, ICE terrorizing a big portion of the consumer population doesn’t help, either.

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Hey, he could pivot at any moment. (Remember that? Seems like years ago.)

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What’s the Republican message you ask? Why just this:

Mick Mulvaney, the interim director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau,… He told banking executives and lobbyists on Tuesday that trying to sway legislators with campaign contributions was one of the “fundamental underpinnings of our representative democracy.”

They aren’t even trying to hide it anymore. They’ve hung out a “For Sale” sign.

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I dread the day of cable news tomorrow, listening to GOPrs talk about Arizona, and pretend as if it’s a real victory.
I just can’t stand listening to their distorted arguments & narratives to back up plain old lies.

There’s still lots of flipping to blue on the way, anyone on the other side of that best run or hunker down.

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How could ANYONE vote for a republiCANT these days?

All they are interested in doing is to discriminate against people of color, they want to slaughter Medicaid, slaughter Medicare, slaughter Social Security, slaughter Food Stamps and slaughter any other social program we have. Anyone who votes for a republiCANT is a RACIST FOOL!!!

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This is a 27-point swing in the Democratic direction in a state Trump won by 4.5%. In November, Democrats capture the Legislature, the U.S. Senate seat(s), at least six of nine U.S. House seats and all of the statewide offices. If Trumpism wins by 5% in Sun City, it’s dead and gone. We just have to turn out the votes and we will.

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It would have just galvanized the Republican vote. There’s a fine line to walk these days between exciting our base and exciting theirs. Here we see a kind of “natural” result, a product of the times we live in and the mathematics of the district. If we’d highlighted it too much, the math would have shifted against us and she might have lost by 16.

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