Might as well say poll queried only AARP members.
Landlines.
Exactly! “800 likely Pennsylvania voters through an automated survey, including only landline phone numbers.”
Not a scientifically valid way of random polling in 2016.
Um, I’m having a hard time believing that McGinty will lose a state that Pres. Obama won 52-47 in 2012. In a presidential year.
Really, regardless of the number, it looks like Toomey is leading. And this highlights some of the issues Dems are having in making the downballot elections competitive. They are doing a pretty cruddy job in Ohio too.
Plenty of time, he’s still gonna get whomped by a girl. Just call him Sock-It Toomey…
Land lines? Really?
Who still has a land land. Oh, right. My 80 year old mother.
And hopefully you’re right. But let’s not get into unskewing territory here. Once there’s a better poll that validates that assumption, great.
Christ on a cinderblock. the RW always think PA is in play only to find out, nah. Not really. Personally, I’m not ready to write off Strickland yet.
Well, not really. Other polls have showed a slim lead for McGinty, until this one. I’d kind of like to see the history of this poll’s accuracy but couldn’t find it on 538. Not sure what to make of it.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!!! How is it possible for Clinton to have a lead in Pa. and this dunce gets to be ahead in this poll??? Whaty the hell is the matter with the Pa voters. Are they not paying attention…IT’S CALLED SUPREME COURT NOMINEES PEOPLE! If you allow the Republi-CONS to remain in control of the senate then Turtle boy Mitch gets to have leverage and the entire process and the presidential elections is moot and not only that the 2018 cycle starts on January 20…AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! And once again we will have four years of getting NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING accomplished except some very bad and compromised appointments to the Supreme court! Remember we are talking about appointments that could carry over into the late 2020’s or 30’s! Justice John Paul Stevens served 35 years…Hugo Black 34 years…William O Douglas 36 years…Scalia 30 years…Thomas 25 years so far…There seems to be an average of about 30 years more or less for some judges…That could mean appointmets to SC that could last until the 2040"s!!! People people
WAKE UP!!!
McGinty is the candidate of the unions and the professional polls. I am a Hillary supporter and always was, so I am not railing against the establishment here. The guys who do the work all wanted Sestak (actually I wanted Fetterman, but he was just not ready to take on a senate race in a big state— he will be though), but he will not play the local party’s uniquely Pennsylvania politics games, which is about spreading around the dough, like pension benefits, charter schools, no bid consulting jobs, and the like. (The Republicans are no better.) Everyone I know will vote for McGinty, but no one will lift a finger to help her. She was a failure at every state job she had, she has no charisma, so her only qualification is she is another vote for Chuck Schemer to be majority leader.
At the mpment, Princeton Election Consortium, which uses medians, not averages, specifically to avoid being blown about by outlier polls, has McGinty up by 2.5%. Their election-day estimate is 63% chance of McGinty winning.
Noooooooooooooo! You shall not pass. Fly you fools.
The Emerson poll only receives a B rating from the easy grading Five-tEirty-Eight site, where the poll gets a strong Republican bias. You can easily add 3-5 % to their numbers to get an accurate poll.
I wonder if that disaster of an Atty Gen. in PA has had any carryover into this race? I haven’t followed PA closely and don’t know much about either candidate, but that AG has just been giving Dems a bad name in that state lately and outside of Philly and Pittsburg it’s a rather red state.
As it always does, it’s probably going to come down to get out the vote efforts in large urban areas.
They didn’t just take 800 random landline calls, they weighted by 2012 election results… Obama got 52% of the vote in 2012, so 52% of the sample is people who say they voted for Obama. This also has the effect of reweighting some of the demographics that might be underrepresented in a landline only poll.
Along with having Clinton only ahead by 3, they do appear to have a GOP lean, and maybe that’s attributable to the methodology to some extent. But you can’t just dismiss this poll out of hand. If McGinty is running 10 points behind Clinton, then she’s definitely behind right now and is probably a slight underdog overall.
I agree. A landline poll is self-skewing. He may be in the lead, he may not. But this poll is an outlier at best.
It is in play for the Senate. It is unlikely to be in play for the presidential race. Usually they go together, but ironically Toomey is getting some support by moving to the left on things like gun control.
I have not followed it closely. And really, there is a danger of believing every individual poll. The big issue is that Penn in particular is close to a must win for the Senate for Dems.
In general the map for a potential president Clinton is pretty bad the next Senate election and the GOP will take a fair number of seats back just based on history if nothing else.